Climatology fails to consider a main contributor –
Maritime activities

Posted 1^st June 2017

Activity at sea, whether by shipping, fishing or offshore drilling and windfarms is a big climate change issue. Not for climate research, ignoring this anthropogenic aspect completely. In the last few decades, Europe has warmed not only faster than the global average, but also faster than expected from anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases, says B-W. Dong, (et al., March,2017), which is known for some time (van Oldenborgh et al, 2009) . But how is it possible? The beloved culprit GHG is equally distributed around the globe.
On the other hand the EEA [European Environment Agency] observed (Fig. 1): Over the past 25 years the rate of increase in sea surface temperature in all European seas has been...

“Why have skeptics countering the AGW meme
for few decades, but to little avail”

Post 06 April 2017

About a recent hearing on climate science by a House of Representative committee on 29^th March, Tim Ball analyzed at WUWT “We Won Climate Battles, but Are Not Winning the Climate War: Here’s Why”.

The views were 1:3 at the expert table. One AGW proponent, M. Mann versus J. Curry, J. Christi, and R. Pielke jr, opposing (see image below). Although Tim Ball regards Mann’s claims as scientifically incorrect and the result of false computer model simulation, he assumes that Mann presented his case better and “won in the eyes of uninformed observers”, due to the inability of the “deniers” to provide definitive answers, and that most skeptics would not have done any better.

But ...

The most popular climate rule, ‘natural climate variability’, is utter nonsense.

In a recent post about global warming or climate change, Roy Spencer assumes that “we will not have much more scientific confidence ten years from now”. The problem is obvious when he wonders:  “How much of recent warming has been natural?” He is not alone.

Source: Roy W. Spencer, Ph.D., March 24th, 2017

The climatologist likes to use the term ‘natural climate variability’, which is said to arise from two different sources: (1) internal variability from interactions among components of the climate system, for example, between the ocean and the atmosphere, and (2) natural external forcing, such as variations in the amount of radiation from the Sun. (Details: judithcurry...

A Link between Atlantic sea-ice 1917
and US winter 1917/18?

Post: March 26, 2017

On one hand the Atlantic sea ice extent during summer 1917 is the only one ever observed (previous post), on the other hand only few month later the United States east of the Rockies winter 1917/18 was remarkably cold. It started with an unusual autumn, explained C.F. Brooks (1918): “The advance guard of our cold winter appeared on August 8 when a strong winter type of anticyclone, or “high,” entered the United States from the Canadian Northwest”.  Could that mean that naval warfare in Europe via the low Arctic winter temperature 1916/17 (see previous post) , or sea ice condition summer 1917 in the North Atlantic,  contributed to a record cold winter in the United States?

The 11-pages essay by C.F...

North Atlantic sea ice in summer 1917 could
teach climate science many lessons.

Post March 15, 2017;  Source: http://www.arctic-warming.com/

Never has such a high sea ice extent been observed in the North Atlantic as in summer 1917 (Fig.1a-1b). This exceptional case has never been investigated. Worst! Science seems not to have taken notice of it, even though thorough understanding of the event could possibly answer two important questions concerning climate change:
FIRST: Contribute the late icing and subsequent melting process to the sudden extraordinary warming at Svalbard and polar region since winter 1918/19, (Fig.2)?
SECOND: Contributed the naval war around Great Britain from1914 to 1918 (Fig. 3) to the exceptional icing, which lasted until 1939/40 (Fig...

Japan under fire – cold is guaranteed – war-winter 1944/45

Posted March 10. 2017 – Comments welcome

The easiest way to grasp how climate works is to: Shell and bomb Japan severely over a couple of weeks and you will get an extreme cold winter in Japan. Here is the proof.  Since late autumn 1944 the Allies warfare machinery could target location and ports in Japan, and merchant and war ships in all sea areas surrounding the island country.  Immediately the winter 1944/45 (Dec/Jan/Feb) became the coldest on record since data were taken regularly, which should not come as surprise. (Fig. 1,2, and 7).

All sea areas around Japan are very deep and very cold. The average sea water temperature will hardly exceed 5 to 6 ° Celsius...

Oceans leave computer predictions no chance

A paper by Judith Curry explains inherent flaws of computer models
predicting future climate change (GWPF, Feb. 2017)

Post February 28, 2017

Not the ocean dimension and system is primarily to blame for flawed climate models but science, which does not recognizing that they have far too few data, even worst, not even been able to acknowledge that the ocean is the ultimate key to understand and protect climate from human influence.

Figure 2

 A previous post appraised the clear language by Dr. Judith Curry in a BBC radio- interview on climate science’s inability and unwillingness to explain the warm-up 1910-1940 and cooling 1940 to 1970.  Few days ago the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) released her 30 page long paper “CLIMATE MODELS f...

The SST Discontinuity in the 1940s – But no answer

Post 25 February 2017 ; Comments welcome

Few years ago David W.J. Thompson at al. attempt to explain “A large discontinuity in the mid-twentieth century in observed global-mean surface temperature“, published in NATURE, [Vol.453, 29May2008]. Whereas they confirmed  that the Earth warmed from 1910 to1940 the subsequent cooling is explained very superficially, namely by a “variety of physical factors, such as atmosphere–ocean interactions and anthropogenic emissions of sulphate aerosols” and of “uncorrected instrumental biases in the sea surface temperature record”. That the large discontinuity has a strong correlation with World War II is not even mentioned. Fig. 1 & Fig. 5 (Source: HERE)

Immediately Bob Tisdale (2009) quest...

Global Cooling 1940 – 1975 explained for climate change experts

Post 18 Februray 2017; Continued from: dr-judith-curry-on-climate-sciences-fatal-flaw/ &   warm-up-1918-1939-explained-for-dr-judith-curry-and-other/

In the previous post we lauded Dr. Judith Curry for her recent statement: “If science can’t explain climate shifts pre 1950, how can we trust today’s climate models?” One of these two shifts was the warming from 1918-1939, we covered: HERE; while the very significant global cooling period from winter 1939/40 to mid-1970s is our topic today, as it is either a widely unexplored field. In our view: the models fail because this cooling was man-made due to naval war during World War Second (WWII), at least according the work of  Dr. Arnd Bernaerts (Book 2004

Fig...

Warm-Up 1918-1939 explained for Dr. Judith Curry and other

  Posted : February 12, 2017 /Comments welcome /  Source and Credit:  “Arctic Warming 1919-1939”

In a previous post we praised Dr. Judith Curry for her recent statement that “……the models fail to simulate the observed warming between 1910 and 1940.” (Fig.1) Here is our explanation: the models fail because this warming is man-made due to naval war during World War One (WWI – 1914 to 1918), Fig. 2 & 3. Therefor we amplify it briefly for Curry and other, which hopefully raise awareness on how easy man can interfere into nature and initiate a climate change.

–1– Since the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) around 1850, the Northern Hemisphere (NH) became modestly warmer until the mid-1910s...

Dr. Judith Curry speaks out on climate science’s fatal flaw –
the failure to explore and understand uncertainty

Post: February 10, 2017 ; Comments welcome

 Dr. Judith Curry speaks out on climate science’s fatal flaw but does she understand the climate change matter at least a little bit better? Unfortunately not, or have you heard her ever talking on the overwhelming predominate influence of the seas?

It was in a recent interview on British radio, February 6th [More at WUWT]  that she mentioned climate science’s fatal flaw – the failure to explore and understand uncertainty, as a yet unaddressed issues of how ‘natural climate change’ drivers impact the earth’s climate, which indicates: Not understood’.

Judith Curry is to praise when mentioning:
___”If science can’t expl...

The 1940s produced four extreme winters
Met-Office recognize only 1947

Post January 29, 2017 _ Comments OPEN

In a recent post the Met-Office asked its reader: “If you’re old enough to remember 1947, then you’ll almost certainly have the winter as one of your most vivid memories of the year. For meteorologists and climatologists, the winter of 1947 was a standout year for the UK…. “, accentuated also about two years ago in: “Severe Winters”.  Why not asking for other winters?

Actually the 1940s produced four extreme winters, during the first three war winters 1939/40 t0 1941/42 and 1946/47. Compare the corresponding temperature anomalies in the first winter 1939/40 with those in winter 1946/47 and the comparability is easily assessable.

Surprisingly the M...

Ignorant Windfarm Industry – Now Off Rhode Island

Posted January 24, 2017

“Now testing the waters: Wind power”, titles the NYT an article concerning the first US off shore wind farm about three miles off Rhode Island. The operating started in last December. Reading the article and the company’s environmental assessment, one can only wonder about the ignorance concerning the impact seem to be in place.

The four-legs steel installations cover a depth of about 80 feet (~25 meters). The water column is permanently in move, horizontal and vertical. The water column has a high verity of temperature and salinity. Each installed object cause a mixing and change of current direction; 24 hours a day. Warmer or colder water may reach the sea surface, that inevitable alter the air temperature.

James Hansen’s Blindness on Big Climatic Events

posted January 23, 2017 – Comments welcome

Massive Data Tampering Uncovered At NASA? The subject was recently discussed at NTZ (and illustrated with multiple graphs). With regard to two events they indicate simultaneously the same:  A steep rise in temperature after World War One (WWI), and a large temperature drop when World War Two commenced in late 1939; as shown in the graphic from 1981.

In 1981, James Hansen was the Director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.  He was also the lead author of a seminal paper published in the prestigious journal Science entitled “Climate Impact of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide“...

 Claiming “natural variability” indicates: Not understood!

posted January 15, 2017; Comment open

Talking about “natural variability” is a sign that the research issue is not understood. But climate science loves the term. So do Chantal Camenisch and her 32 colleagues in their recent paper (A) concerning a climate reconstruction from a multitude of natural and anthropogenic archives, which indicates that the 1430s were the coldest decade in north-western and central Europe in the 15th century.

Interesting is their conclusion that neither volcanic eruptions nor a reduction in solar forcing on temperature seasonality can explain these winters in the 1430s, although attached images  indicate that air temperatures and precipitation may have been strongly influenced by the Eastern Atlan...

Dinosaurs wiped out by … Darkness and Cold

Posted 14 Jan. 2017; h/T JoaNova

“To investigate the sudden extinction of the dinosaurs about sixty six million years ago, the scientists for the first time used a specific kind of computer simulation normally applied in different contexts, a climate model coupling atmosphere, ocean and sea ice”; says PIK. However little information is provided about data and possible role of the ocean,

Instead the only physical reference is according Julia Brugger from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), and lead author of the study: “The big chill following the impact of the asteroid that formed the Chicxulub crater in Mexico is a turning point in Earth history.” [Publ. 13.Jan.2017] That is certainly too petty-minded view, when the global ...

Too many miss the big picture – also Alan Carlin

Post 1st January 2017

Should AGW sceptics understand what they are talking about? Of course! Let’s have a look at the critical view of Alan Carlin expressed in a recent post (Dec.30,2016): “Why Climate Alarmists Have Missed the Big Picture”. He claims that “There is evidence that very minor changes in the incidence of sunlight on Earth can and have resulted in plunging Earth and all its living cargo into new ice ages”.  It is not the sun but the oceans, and Alan Carlin, as a sceptic for many years, should know it.

Back in 2009 Alan Carlin, an economist and senior analyst at the EPA (US Environmental Protection Agency), became a sudden celebrity with the surfacing of a few e-mail messages that seemed to show that his contrarian v...

Cold Ocean – The best kept secret in the ‘climate world?

 Posted December 28. 2016

“The best kept secret in the ‘climate world’ probably is: the cooling capacity of the deep sea. Some attention is paid to the heat uptake by the oceans, but there is no attention for the cooling capacity of the deep sea. That capacity is huge and might be (and might have been) of decisive importance in climate and climate change”;  says Wim Röst in a guest past at WUWT (26.Dec.2016).

The assessment is important, and the essay is recommended to be read due to the fine presentation of the oceanic dimension and temperature structure. But if Röst assume “Warming by [less] Upwelling of Cold Ocean Water”, he is speculating, as no data in this respect have been collected...

Global Cooling and Fake

posted Dece mber 26, 2016

After decades of warming, suddenly winter 1939/40 became the coldest in Europe in more than 100 years, which was the beginning of a global cooling for more than three decades. The reason has never been seriously investigated, although World War Two represents an unprecedented field experiment. Instead of assessing the impact of naval warfare on weather and climate, the discussion is merely about the interpretation of temperature statistics, as indicated in the two images. Are they misinterpreted?

The full title of a recent post at WUWT (Dec.15, 2016) is:  “Global Cooling and Wikipedia Fake News”, referring to:

___an excellent new post up at notrickszone.com (Sept...

Incompetence in ocean matters continues.
Adolf Hitler in WWII – Climatology ever since!

The New York Time brought the news on the front page of the December 9^th 1941 issue: “US declares war”  and that the “Nazis give up idea of Moscow in 1941. Winter forces abandoning big drives in the north (N- Europe) until spring, Berlin says”. Since November temperature and snow conditions became worse than the wildest imagination. What is not known is that Hitler could only blame himself and his weather-advisors for this enormous miscalculation. They had expected a mild winter. (More) They had not learned anything from the previous two cold winters 1939/40 and 1940/41, and the role that naval war had played.

And again, Hitler’s great field experiment in climate-change by naval war in the se...

Arctic Report Card 2016 –  An Insufficient Work

Posted December 19, 2016

“It’s crazy.” Since 2006, the Arctic Report Card is issued annually, and the four dozen authors, miss the most fundamental aspect in their annual review ever since; facts and discussion of changes in the sea water structure concerning temperatures and salinity. There are hundreds of military, commercial , research and leisure ships navigating the open and ice covered Arctic Ocean, but  science is not even able to mention the threat by human activities. That is crazy.

While it is a fact that a persistent warming trend and loss of sea ice trigger Arctic changes, it is necessary to acknowledge that the prime source is the sea water column, which is extreme sensitive to human activities (see image), particularly...

Naval War drives PDO into Cooling – 75 Years Ago

 Posted December 16, 2016

Soon Shinzo Abe is to make a historic visit to Pearl Harbour, the first by a Japanese leader.  By a devastating sneak attack on Pearl Harbour on Dec. 7, 1941, a prolonged naval war across the Western Pacific commenced.  This naval war pushed the Pacific in a cooling mood, contributing to the global cooling period from 1940 to the mid-1970s. The dramatic shift in the early 1940s in the “Pacific Decadal Oscillation” (PDO) is known for decades, but nothing about its causation. Science is unaware of the profound correlation between naval warfare and its impact on climate, and that after 75 years have passed. A profound analysis is HERE.

This major topic in a world that fears anthropogenic climate change will ...

Why do models disagree on temperature variability?

Climate models have problems. The problems are as old as science attempts to understand climate change by model simulation. That will last until a thorough ocean observation system is in place, and overriding impact of the oceans on climate is accepted, understood and applied in climate sciences..

But the narrow vies continues to prevail, as recently expressed by Dr. Patrick Brown (2016/12/05), when saying:

Since it is known that unforced GMST  (‘global mean surface temperature’ ) variability is heavily influenced by tropical Pacific surface temperatures, it might be tempting to suppose that the large inter-model spread in the simulated magnitude of GMST variability is due to model disagreement in the amount of simulated tropical Pac...

Afraid of Scott Pruitt? – Blame yourself!

Posted: December 11, 2016

Emerge now the unique chance to review the whole climate change matter, since Donald Trump selected the sceptic Scott Pruitt to serve as the head of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).  The pick of the Oklahoma Attorney General has been described as “putting an arsonist in charge of fighting fires”, with some warning “the whole country is in danger”, even an “existential threat to the planet”.

The concern has merits, but is that Pruitt’s fault? Could Pruitt be not right when casting doubt on whether human activity is causing the planet to warm – in opposite to 97% of the scientific community? For sure if he addresses only the arrogance of the 97% who believe in the warming by carbon dioxide, but wron...

Holy Molly – A young Lady and Al Gore

Posted December 07, 2016 // COMMENTS open

The future first daughter is reportedly planning to make climate change one of her signature issues. On Monday the 5th of December Ivanka Trump met with former Vice President Al Gore to discuss “climate issues”. After the meeting, Gore disclosed he had also met with the president-elect, describing the conversation as “very productive” and a “sincere search for areas of common ground.”

Holy Molly what is Rep Senator Jim Inhofe going to say, who calls Climate change talking the “Greatest Hoax”, confirming this assessment  in a statement  only one month ago: “Americans do not support …economically damaging mandates that have no measurable impact to climate change.” (More HERE) That hardl...

James Inhofe (R-Okl.): Global Warming is Greatest Hoax.

Posted 07 December 2016: Comments: open

On Wednesday November 9, 2016, U.S. Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.), chairman of the Senate Environment and Public Works (EPW), released a statement on future of the United States’ commitment to the Paris Agreement (A).

 If someone regards global warming as the conspiracy and has written a book about the subject (B) in which he claimed that “our rigorous oversight of the IPCC began with my “Greatest Hoax” speech in 2003”, the announcements made four weeks ago, “that a future administration will have numerous options to forego political commitments under the Paris Agreement” will change the general scenario considerably.

Presumably Jim Inhofe talk is as much vacuous as that of his oppone...

The 1430s: A Cold Period – Why?

Posted December 03, 2016; NOTE: Comments Section Activated

A recent paper (A)  by 32 scientists assume, “that the 1430s were the coldest decade in north-western and central Europe in the 15th century, and that this decade is characterised by cold winters and average to warm summers”. No surprise that WUWT titled the story: “Cold Kills: The coldest decade of the millennium”, but merely asking: “cold kills, so why all the whining about warming?”(B), while remaining silent about the papers notion, that “…these conditions occurred by chance due to the partly chaotic internal variability within the climate system”. This is shocking. What is “internal variability”?

Leading scientists seem incapable to understand that climate (and weather) ...

Oceans Govern Climate   

Ocean average temperature is only about 4 ° Celsius

The name “oceansgovernclimate” is program. Measures to protect climate without profound information and understanding of the oceans are costly, insufficient, and delay action to prevent anthropogenic “ocean change” that probably cause climate change. Since long we support the fascinating theory on the impact of naval war on climate, as outlined in the “Booklet on Naval War changes Climate”. The two World Wars demonstrate conclusively how easy human activities induce alteration in the sea-structure that leads to climatic changes.  ‘Human activities’ cover everything, from shipping, fishing, leisure boats, and off-shore platforms...

Potential-Nasa-climate-data-fraud

h/t  P Gosselin on 25. July 2016 (NTZ)

Tony Heller (HERE) calls the idea that it’s getting hotter “utter nonsense”, and being due to “station data loss and fabrication”, indicating that NASA “erased” the once unanimously agreed cooling from 1940 – 1970; (Fig. 1) Heller, who goes by the pseudo-name of Steve Goddard at his wildly popular realclimatecience site, highlights some of the many ridiculous claims climate experts and activist politicians made, and have since turned out to be a complete folly, assuming  “climate data is being manipulated to increase alarm“.  See more

The two big climatic shifts are not sun but ocean allocatable

at NTZ:

The problem is that NASA seems feeling obliged to erase the global cooling (1940 to mid 1970...

Bombshell study: past El Niño’s ‘may have amplified
global climate fluctuations for hundreds of years at a time’ *)

The new work from AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY found periods of predominantly El Niño-like patterns for several hundred years that alternate with La Niña patterns, impacting on global climate over the last 2000 years. What does it tell us? Oceans govern climate! The sea surface area of an El Niño event is extreme small compared with the entire global ocean space. How shall such tiny sea area contribute significantly to global warming, asks a recent post?. The ocean interior is what matters...

According NASA: “97 percent of climate scientists agree: Climate-warming trends over the past century are extremely likely due to human activities.” (1) The Guardian is even blunter: “It’s settled: 90–100% of climate experts agree on human-caused global warming” (2) It looks compelling, but not everyone agrees.  “..[t]he claim of “scientific consensus” on the causes and consequences of climate change is without merit”, object the authors Craig D. Idso et al., in a recent book publication by The Heartland Institute (3) Is one claim better than the other. No, because the problem is not “scientific consent”, but the facts used for consideration.

That applies to both sides, as both are too much fixed on atmospheric matters.  Idso et al., cite Prof Judith Curry (p.37)

The Environmentalist Game Plan (1)

x) Mission: Deindustrialize Civilization
xx) Goal: Drive industrial corporations into Bankruptcy
xxx) Strategy: Cut off the Supply of Cheap, Reliable Energy

Tactics:
–Raise the price of fossil fuels
–Force the power grid to use expensive, unreliable renewables
–emonize Nuclear energy
–Spread fear of extraction technologies such as fracking
–Increase regulatory costs on energy production
–Scare investors away from carbon energy companies
–Stop pipelines because they are too safe and efficient
–Force all companies to account for carbon usage and risk

Radical environmentalism is playing the endgame while others are sleeping, or discussing the holes in the science. It is the belief in Climate Change and the activists executing their game plan...

Incredible! But should skeptics blame not first themself when  “Al Gore and State Attorney Generals start another climate witch hunt? “*)

                           Read the recent post (13 March 2016) – upper lines added 29 March
A need to identify „Climate Criminals“? For Skeptics: YES! 
Skeptics should wake-up soon on identifying explicit ‘climate criminals’, starting with the First Climate Criminal – Adolf Hitler (HERE1). If not they are likely to be in focus themselves soon. Only few days ago U.S. Attorney General Loretta Lynch acknowledged
that there have been discussions within the Department of Justice about possibly pursuing civil action against so-called climate change deniers…....

A guest essay by Rick Wallace (R.W.) at WUWT (2016/03/10) assumes that “in real science any state of agreement is labile at best – and establishing a consensus is about the last thing on peoples’ minds”, which he base on study evolutionary biology. He thereon explains “that under these conditions, as often as not, a leading idea is a target to take aim at rather than a flag to rally ‘round.” From this perspective Rick Wallace concludes: “Obviously, this cast of mind is utterly different from what we find in the AGW arena. Which in itself is compelling evidence that the motivations are different in normal science and in (C)AGW.”

What lacks all this noble consideration is that R.W...

Modest means modest! Modest with regard to the sun means only a third place or less in CLIMATE CHANGE matters! Skeptics like to challenge main-stream science on the influence of the sun, HERE & HERE referring to “….spectral analysis […over the last ~ 9400 years] identifies a number of distinct periodicities/cycles such as 88 yr, 104 yr, 150 yr, 208 yr, 506 yr, 1000 yr, and 2200 yr…”. That is hardly to dispute, but still wrong with regard to the claim that “the sun has always had an important influence upon climate change”. The sun’s influence is ocean controlled: Variation in solar activity is reflected in cycles. But temporary temperature variations, have little to do with “climate change”, as e.g...

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007 IPCC Report) determine: “Water vapor is the most abundant and important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. However, human activities have only a small direct influence on the amount of atmospheric water vapor.”
IPCC is ignorant and wrong on the influence of human. Since industrialization human activities churn and turn the sea surface layer down to a dozen and more meters (Fig.1). Several hundred thousand ship propellers, and million other activities exchange warmer with colder water, or vice vers, and modify the salinity structure. That is the gate by which the amount of vapor is generated.

These ocean uses affect the part of the ocean that is the major weather maker up to several weeks if not many months...

Europe is warm (Fig1). Atlantic air flows smoothly East (discussed HERE), setting the “Siberian Express” in motion, pushing Artic air to NorthEast of the U.S. (Fig.2) That had been already the case last year (MORE) and now again this year (Fig. 3, 4):

Bitter Temperatures to Put Northeast Under Deep Freeze on Valentine’s Day (nbcnews – Feb.14/2016)
Bitter temperatures flirted with record lows on Sunday as “life-threatening” conditions put millions across the country in a deep freeze for Valentine’s Day. More than 38 million people from the Plains into the Midwest and East Coast were under winter-storm warnings or advisories

overnight, according to The Weather Channel...

Most surprisingly, Europe winter 1939/40 was the coldest for 100 years.

Unfortunately, back in summer 1939 there was no voice that warned Adolf Hitler and his consorts that a major war in general, and a naval warfare in particular, would bear a high risk of dangerous interfering with weather and atmospheric conditions, with unknown consequences.

In addition, no one mentioned how foolish it would be to start with naval war activities in northern European waters in early autumn. It would release the heat stored in the North Sea and Baltic earlier than in other years. This heat is an essential contributor to moderate winters in Europe. No, Reichskanzler Adolf Hitler and the High Command of the Wehrmacht had no idea of the risks, neither did their professional advisers...

When will climate science be able to distinguish clearly between a global-average manifestation of El Niño-driven global weather effects, and an explanation of global average warming associated with El Niño? Concerning the latter aspect the World Meteorology Organization seems not able and willing to do the simplest considerations (Hottest Year). The feature is about a temporary warmer than normal SSTs across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (ENSO), which looks like one water bubble or pool. Compared to ocean dimension it is merely “a drop in the sea”, and only a tiny fraction warmer than usual, namely about 0,5 to 3°C, with a little dip down to a depth of 100 meters (max 150m), whereas the mean Pacific depth is 4,280 m...

Only by consensus among scientists 2015 is the hottest. Whether that is the case we do not know, as temperature records have been adjusted, adjusted, and adjusted over several decades. For 2015 NOAA presents a wonderful image, presumably more art than science, with a tiny cold hole between Iceland and Canada. The ‘glowing globe with a blue eye’ is based on global average temperature difference to the period of 1951 to 1980. That is gross negligent if not scam. The 1930s ended with almost as high temperatures as during the last decade with the years 1934, 1931, 1938, 1939 in the top league of hottest years since the end of the Little Ice Age about 1850. In late 1939 World War II commenced. Four month later the winter in Europe was the coldest for 100 years (more HERE and HERE) and subse...

While El Niño goes strong in the Pacific, storm Henry reach Europe today, Fig. 1 & 2 , which could be an interesting case to study, whether this goes together. But not for met-services preferring to make forecast in the distant future.

UK Met Office just updated decadal forecasts, also called ‘near-term’ climate predictions, and declares 2015 the warmest year on record. The UK Met Office claims that these high global temperatures are consistent with continued high levels of greenhouse gases and big changes that are currently underway in the climate system and were highlighted in a recent Met Office research news article (September 2015).

OGC ascertained immediately that already the first sentence of the report is faulty. That is the crux of climate research.

REF: Met-Office: Storm Henry (...

Undersea volcanic eruption has caused a Snowball Earth long ago. Recent papers (HERE, HERE) and blogs WUWT,  CLIMATE-ETC, ICEAGENOW showed interest concerning the impact on ocean warming, CO2 increase, and climate change. The problem is different: It could trigger a new ice age within a short period of time. The ocean is too big to reflect pronounced on a bit heat input, but may alter oceanic currents. Major changes in the global flow system would affect the sea surface. Overall ocean temperature is about 4° Celsius. The warm sea surface with more than 10°C is a very thin layer north and south of the Equator.  Cooling the upper surface layer down by a few degrees Celsius could be sufficient to trigger new ice age...

SCIENCE MATTERS writes:

“Dr Arnd Bernaerts has long studied effects in Northern European Seas. Here are excerpts from his recent publication:

Offshore Wind-Parks and Northern Europe’s Mild Winters:
Contribution from Ships, Fishery, et cetera?

the 11 page essay in PDF

His main point from the abstract:
The marine environment of North Sea and Baltic is one of the most heavily strained by numerous human activities. Simultaneously water and air temperatures increase more than elsewhere in Europe and globally, which cannot be explained with “global warming”.
Excerpts:
Since mankind, during the course of a year, agitates the water column of North Sea and Baltic by stirring, more warmth is taken to deeper water in the summer season and rises to the surface from lower layers in the winter per...

The current 2015–16 El Niño is one of the three strongest ever recorded. For a number of months El Niño is blamed for unusual weather, which is widely acknowledged that certain effects can be linked to a strong El Niño. While the event causes weather ‘moderation’, its impact on global warming does not. A plain calculation suggests: negative.

A warmer than average water pool along the Equator must have an effect on air circulation. As soon as the usual trade-wind ceases the entire global air circulation changes. When the trade-wind cease, global air circulation adapt to the change. Unusual weather is inevitable, and different temperature levels may follow temporarily. But a general warming is most unlikely.

Attached are two graphs indicating the dimension of current El Niño...

Only four months into World War Two (WWII) winter weather 1939/40 run amok and global air temperatures dropped for three decades until mid-1970s. After the end of 70 years copyright barrier,  Hitler’s ‘Mein Kampf’ is back in print, a book full of hate, lies, and stupid conclusions, written between 1924 and 1926. He is better known as the greatest war monger of all time, but due to failure of meteorology and climate science, was never identified as the first and worst individual who caused climate change, and called a “criminal in climate change matters”. Adolf Hitler started WWII on 1st September 1939 and only four months later Europe tumbled into the coldest winter in more than 100 years. By mid-January 1940 temperatures fell to minus 40°C at many locations from Leningrad/St...

“One of Poland’s deadliest-ever cold snaps killed at least 21 people over the weekend, with temperatures falling to -18C (-0.4F), officials say” reported BBC on January, Monday, 04. . Meteorology Services underline such incompetent reporting, e.g. weather.com, instead of informing the general public that 76 years ago air temperature plugged to record lows before mid-January 1940, as reported by the New York times; 08. Jan: minus 35°C in Northern and Central Russia, and on the 11^th: Romania -40°; Riga -41°; Vienna -26° Sofia; and at Siedlce in Poland minus 41° the all-time record (see map; Source)...

When will it be recognized that the oceans are huge and have only an average temperature of + 4°C, able to cause very sudden drastic cooling — that could threaten the survival of civilization.

One of the most shocking scientific realizations of all time has slowly been dawning on us: an abrupt cooling could be triggered by our current global-warming trend. Europe’s climate could become more like Siberia’s, assumed William H. Calvin some time ago, warning that global warming could lead, paradoxically, to drastic cooling — a catastrophe that could threaten the survival of civilization. In his view there seems to be no way of escaping the conclusion that global climate flips occur frequently and abruptly...

Climate alarmists have run wild with predictions about the Monster El Niño active in the Pacific for several months (MORE). A corresponding situation existed in late 1939. But between the temperatures January 1940 and assumed January 2016 the difference could not be bigger. Don’t ask meteorology to explain. 76 years have passed without ever been interested in the matter.
But while it is expected that December 2015 is the hottest on record, December 1939 was the beginning of an extreme cold winter in Europe. The winter was special because it was the coldest since the end of the Little Ice Age around 1850, turning a global warming trend into a three decades lasting period of cooling, which happened after four months war, in World War II...

The recent run of unsettled, wet weather will continue this week with Storm Frank (MetOff-29Dec15), the sixth named storm of the season arrives. December has already been a record breaking month for rainfall in some parts of the UK, with exceptional amounts of rain falling onto already saturated ground (28Dec- HERE). Wet weather will continue. Storm Frank (955 hPa) south-east of Greenland Tuesday morning is on the way (29 Dec) –Fig 1 (left)–
How much of this situation is due to Northern Europe’s condition, high air pressure East of the Baltic (Fig.1), and high sea surface temperatures from Faroe Island to St. Petersburg (Fig.2 – right)...

Recent weeks have been warm in Europe, well above average. The North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are below average, but the ocean north of Iceland, and the North Sea and Baltic, well above. That warms Northern Europe, at a time when the influence of the sun is modest and the seas heat the region significantly. Not necessarily everyone understands it. According to the UK Met Office, the exceptional warmth in Britain and northern continental Europe is linked to the strongest El Niño ever recorded, causing unusual weather from Britain to Australia, reports The Guardian (Dec.20, 2015): “What we are experiencing is typical of an early winter El Niño effect,” said Adam Scaife, head of Met Office long- range forecasting.

What Mr Adam Scaife does not tell us, how a warm-water –section...

For the Belgian Professor of Chemistry István Marko “it is a mystery how any serious environmental organization holding the belief that man-made CO2 emissions are damaging global climate would be satisfied with such a powerless agreement, which we are now seeing as being nothing more than an illusion of a binding treaty.”  Notrickszone

Prof Marko has no good word for COP21, seeing the rich countries engaged in “wishful thinking“, but are his thoughts any better? As a man of chemistry he should know more about climate affairs, and what makes work. More than two-third of weather and climate is done by water, in the air and oceans. When Marko calls COP21 as no useful or showing serious results, one wonders what he offers instead...

One single winter proves that COP21 is wrong! War winter 1939/40 proves COP21 acts irresponsible.
There was an El Nino active in late 1939. Since May 2015 a ‘Monster Godzilla El Niño” is promulgated by science and the press. In Paris COP21 agreed a new climate treaty on global warming few days ago on Sunday the 13th December, without taking note of the real world.
By mid-December 1939 in Northern European waters sea icing commenced:
__From Denmark first signs of ice were reported around mid-December and they increased soon in the inner closed waters.
_ Icing emerged on river Elbe on the 16th of December 1939, intensified massively before month end, and continued with extreme sea ice conditions for 90 days –throughout the regional seas- until mid-March 1940.

This year, with ‘normal a...

Since 2011 a new satellite system collects data on long-term climate change and short-term weather conditions. Once and a while it produce nice pictures, as recently, when damaging heavy rains fell on South Carolina in the southeastern United States at the beginning of October 2015. Much of that water had, by mid-October, flowed into the Atlantic. The image, a Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), shows the runoff as it interacts with ocean currents on Oct. 15. Climatologists use VIIRS data to improve our understanding of global climate change (Source).

Beautiful pictures not necessarily improve understanding...

Prof. H.J. Schellnhuber’s 784-page epos ‘Self-immolation’ (2015), just published in time for COP21, commencing in Paris today, is a masterpiece piece of missionary work – for doom mongers.

Peter Höppe, Head of Munich Re’s Geo Risks Research/Corporate Climate Centre: “Self-combustion’ is the book of one of the internationally most renowned climate scientist, that is written with lots of personal commitment. There is probably no other book that depicts the physical processes and political discussions about climate change as comprehensively and understandably as this one. Time and time again Hans Joachim Schellnhuber intentionally changes his perspective from an objective role as a scientist, takes side and works with his unconventional style of writing...

“Most of the people going to Paris will know nothing about the climatology or climate science. They will not know or want to know that the science used as the basis for the conference is a creation of corrupted people who hide behind rules created for a completely different purpose”, is the verdict of Tim Ball [at WUWT – 27 Nov. 2015].

Few decades ago the late Chair of Canada’s national Climate Program Planning Board (1992-202), F. Kenneth Hare. said this about Climatology: “You hardly heard the word professionally in the 1940s. It was a layman’s word. Climatologists were the halt and the lame...

When did we “pathologize” weather? When did commonplace weather become abnormal? The debates over the past and future of anthropogenic climate change are of great importance (climate change is ubiquitous in history). But the news increasingly describes normal weather as a kind of plague, something to fear.

Climate alarmists have run wild with predictions about the “monster” “Godzilla” El Niño, a last throw of the dice before the COP-21 climate conference in Paris. The latest forecasts of the major climate models suggest that it will disappoint activists. All at WUWT

Is Monster Godzilla El Niño not shaping Europe’s winter? HERE

El Niño – To be, or not to be

What will strongest ever El Niño, widely named ‘Godzilla’, do to Europe’s
coming winter?

 Generally, El Niño could cause a jet stream configuration to allow for
cold air at times into West-Europe, says accuweather.

NOAA forecast predicts differently (Fig), temperatures well above mean.
1939 was as also an El Niño year, but Europe suffered under the coldest
winter for 100 years. Many decades have passed, but nothing explained.
Is that serious science?

We will see! Winter 2015/16 is coming for sure, and the strength of
El Niño is likely to pike in December, NOAA predicts (12.Nov.15).

Found at: Has El Niño a role on sub-cold winters in Europe?

20 Nov. 2015 by admin

Admin/04/11.04.2015

Forward! Forward! Let’s proceed to the largest and probably most senseless investment ever. Big money for climate science in sight! Paris will soon host a meeting (COP21) based on the Framework Convention on Climate Change, 1992 (UNFCCC), to replace the Kyoto Protocol (1997) that commit States to reduce greenhouse gas emission, to establish a ‘Green Fond’ to assist developing countries in adaptation and mitigation practices to counter climate change. For this aim a ‘mere’ 100 Billion $ shall be raised per annum. Within a decade that sums up to 1 Trillion. For those who have no idea of what this means, they should note that the economic cost of the entire WWII have been estimated with a sum of about U.S. $ 1,600,000,000,000 (1.6 Trillion)...

EXXON’s failure in climate affairs
[h/t Dave; Ref.: http://www.exxonmobilperspectives.com/2015/10/21/when-it-comes-to-climate-change-read-the-documents/ ] Excerpt

EXXON’s fault is not strongly opposing a meaningless language with regard what ‘climate’ is, but accepting that. WMO/IPCC regard that
“ Climate as the statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years.” (IPCC, AR5, 2013, Glossary, p. 1450) What are “relevant qualities …from months to millions of years”.

The sea is by far the biggest generator of vapor

How can science work and communicate with the general public, politics, and skeptics with such nonsense?
According the Glossary of the American Meteoro...

A serious EL Niño event  is active! Strongest hurricane ever recorded, Patricia is expected Friday 23. October 2015

__Hurricane Patricia: Mexico awaits ‘strongest ever’ storm (BBC: 23/10 ,16h UTC)
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-34614864

How was it in California September 1939, with four storms, heat wave, heavy rain and ….the only tropical storm to make landfall in California in the twentieth century…… A serious EL Niño event  was active!  Science never investigated this matter seriously.  Read more:    http://www.seaclimate.com/c/c4/c4.html (Ch. C4 d), & http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/enso/tropstorm.nws //         Credit & more : http://www.ocean-climate-law.com/12/arch/18a.html

Added 24.Oct.15

Climate variability in the North Atlantic is atmosphere driven a new study claims. [ScienceDaily, 15 October 2015] explaining: that the pattern of the AMO*) can be accounted for by atmospheric circulation alone, without any role for the ocean circulation.
Is that serious? The AMO pattern is based on statistical analyses of observational and proxy climate data. If the study compares climate models that include ocean circulation with climate models that have no ocean circulation, and concludes that ocean circulation may not play as prominent a role as previously thought, the researcher ignore the difference in dimension involved. The correlation between sea and air is about 1:1000...

Frequently heard; there is confusion between weather and climate. For real? Is it not due to poor definitions?

Definitions: IPCC, AR5, 2013, Glossary, p. 1450

Talking about weather foremost requires selecting on what weather pattern one needs or wants to talk about. The British know it, others as well. For ordinary men it may be entertaining, but in science it is a lack in seriousness and competence. Weather components or explanations can go in many hundred items, for which science offers commonly only a very general explanation (NASA):

“Weather is the way the atmosphere behaves.”

What an enlightening statement! That is definitely not a serious definition, and for any scientific work absolute useless. Nevertheless science does not hesitate to say: “Climate in a narrow sense is usu...

Weather will get interesting over the next months. Speculations are high. A rapidly strengthening El Niño event
will likely peak later this fall as one of the strongest El Niño event ever observed (24/09). 

23 September 2015
– Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly

There is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016 (NOAA). What does this mean for the upcoming winter season? That is the big question!

For Europe the risk of a colder is currently considered small, predicted UK-MetOffice recently. The GUARDIAN offers more options;

• 10 September: El Niño expected to hit US hard, but not enough to ease California drought...

21 September 2015 /admin

Water temperature profile in southern Baltic Sea over a depth of 43 m at several levels

Science has not yet explained why Norther Europe warms more than the rest of the world (REF.) Any impact of ocean use has not crossed their mind.  Today further 80 offshore wind turbines north of Rügen start-up, at a location which is between 23 to 40m deep. Over the seasons the temperature difference between top and bottom can reach more than 12°C and differ between various depths level and throughout the season. As the water masses of the Baltic is in move permanently, inevitable any kind of platform forms a considerable obstacle, forcing the “natural current” to change course. During summer that will force more heat in, and in winter more heat out...

Skeptics are doing what scientists are supposed to do, that is disproving the AGW hypothesis, reminded Tim Ball in a recent WUWT comment [19. September.], when some IPCC members required to launch criminal charges against “climate deniers”. Of course such talking is ridiculous and irresponsible. But can Tim Ball require more serious behavior? Are skeptics so much better? Not when it comes to clear scientific terminology, as they use the same nonsense climate terms as the promoters of ‘official’ climate. Tim Ball is no exception (see here). Neither CLIMATE nor WEATHER is defined in a manner that servers discussion and understanding our water planet. That supports a “Climate Science turned Monster”, and skeptics inability to stop this trend...

GEOMAR explains – 15 September 2015

“Although the solar effect on the North Atlantic Oscillation explains only a few percent of the total variance, the close relationship between solar activity and phase North Atlantic Oscillation is an important indicator to improve the predictability of climate variability” say GEOMAR (press-release 15. Sept. 2015)

“Rising global temperatures since the industrial revolution cannot be attributed to increased solar activity”, reports Phys.org. (August 7, 2015); by concluding
“The apparent upward trend of solar activity between the 18th century and the late 20th century has now been identified as a major calibration error in the Group Sunspot Number...

Big Changes Underway in the Climate System? MetOff-Sept.2015

Did UK-Met get already in a 21 pages long analysis (September 2015) the first sentence wrong, by saying:

“The Earth’s global average surface climate is primarily determined by the exchange of energy between the atmosphere, the oceans and space”.
One may say that without being wrong, but it disguises the real dimensions over longer periods of time (climate), because the bulk of energy exchange is between oceans and space. Average surface temperatures depend highly on ocean heat storage and heat release.

The analysis confirm it by attributing any possible changes to the current status of El Niño, PDO, and AMO, not hesitating to conclude the report with a meaningless statement:
“ Further long-term global warming is expected ...

MetOff. express concern (28.Aug.15; HERE-1): No-one can deny that we have had a pretty
disappointing summer with a lot of unsettled weather and only a few warm spells,
especially through  July and August.

How the sea keeps Great Britain cold

Meanwhile DAILYMAIL predicts (HERE-2): A cold snap will begin on Sunday in Scotland and is expected to spread southwards, bringing snowfall to parts of England and Wales by Wednesday. Worst! Birmingham hit by ‘snow’ in September in unseasonal deluge, reported BirminghammMail on 02nd Sept (HERE-3).
The reason is simple. The North Atlantic water temperature is significantly below average. It affected UK summer weather and will dampen global temperature level. The sea shows strength in weather making, but MetOff shows little interest...

Posted: 10 August 2015

The time may end soon eventually that the sun is responsible for significant climatic changes, as new research indicates:

“Rising global temperatures since the industrial revolution cannot be attributed to increased solar activity”, reports Phys.org. (August 7, 2015); by concluding 

“The apparent upward trend of solar activity between the 18th century and the late 20th century has now been identified as a major calibration error in the Group Sunspot Number. Now that this error has been corrected, solar activity appears to have remained relatively stable since the 1700s.”

It is time to put the sun in second or third position. There is no evidence that varying sun-ray has ever caused a significant and abrupt climatic change in many million years...

Anthony Watts’ recent post (30. July 2015) cites a study by Andrey Savtchenko et al. (NASA) indicating

“that El Niño contributes only six percent to California’s precipitation variability and is one factor among other, more random effects that influence how much rainfall the state receives. While it’s more likely El Niño increases precipitation in California, it’s still possible it will have no, or even a drying, effect.”

What a helpless science. Why? They have not investigated what they should have done a long time ago.

Since summer 1939 a strong El Niño was active off South America’s coast. Few weeks later there was war in Mongolia and Europe. California experienced an eight days heat wave, since about 16^th September followed by a severe tropical storm New York Times,...

The other day Lomonosov Moscow State University got worldwide attention.  By press release (16.July 2015) a new study was presented: “New Ice Age may begin by 2030”, assuming that:  “The arrival of intense cold similar to the one raged during the “Little Ice Age”, which froze the world during the XVII century and in the beginning of the XVIII century, is expected in the years 2030–2040. “

The study claims it will be the sun. A new reduction of the solar activity will lead to reduction of the solar irradiance. Indeed, solar activity affects the climate. Without the sun ‘climate’ would not exist...

Offshore wind turbines “consume wind”, a force which is no longer available in the West Wind Drift to flow smoothly eastwards, explained a recent post (Link 1) with reference to work by Mark Z. Jacobson. Chien Wang and Ronald G Prinn (2011) found that offshore wind turbine installations cause a surface cooling over the installed offshore regions whereby this cooling is due principally to the enhanced latent heat flux from the sea surface to lower atmosphere, driven by an increase in turbulent mixing caused by the wind turbines which was not entirely offset by the concurrent reduction of mean wind kinetic energy (Link 2).

What the two papers ignore is the impact offshore installation cause due to immense obstacles between sea surface and the sea floor...

Actually Tim Ball does not say what climate is, he only refers to climatology and climate science. Is that sufficient to understand, respectively enshrines a definition for the term “climate”. In a recent post at WUWT (29:June2015) that is what he said:

Climatology is the study of weather patterns of a place or region, or the change of weather patterns over time. Climate science is the study of one component piece of climatology. The analogy I’ve used for decades is that climatology is a puzzle of thousands of pieces; climate science is one piece of the puzzle. A practical approach to assembling the puzzle is to classify pieces into groups.
The problem is obvious, what is a “weather pattern”? Tim Ball is silent on it...

The West Wind Drift supported by warm North Atlantic and Norwegian Current keep North Europe’s winter mild. How many offshore wind turbines are needed to decrease the flow of this warm air eastwards, which usually keep Siberian temperatures at bay from reaching West Europe? Today already more than 1200 turbines are grounded in a water depth down to 30 meters and more. The turbines “consume wind”, a force which is no longer available in the West Wind Drift to flow smoothly eastwards. Will it one day show an impact on the weather and air temperatures?

Computer simulations by Professor Mark Z...

A UK Policy paper (2012/2015),: “2010 to 2015 government policy: climate change international action”,  assert in Annex 5 to provide a definition on “climate change” (Link and full text below), but instead speak about statistics related to components of the atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere, and land surface. Actually they say: “Climate is a statistical characteristic“. Such an explanation is meaningless, at least superficial and thoughtlessly. One cannot change something without saying what this something is. This is the first fault, because a statistic is a statistic, and informative only for one individual item of investigation.

Maybe the UK Policy paper refers unsaid to the widely used saying (including the International Meteorological Organization  – IMO) that “climate is a...

In the last post Willis Eschenbach was cited: “we can say nothing about whether the ocean might be warming, cooling, or standing still.” We doubt that it will be possible soon, as the “oceans have stripes”.
A paper by Ethan Gutmann (2008) HERE explains:
“These stripes are not visible without looking very closely, but they are visible through their effect on currents, temperatures, and sea surface heights. They were first spotted in a careful analysis of the Mean Dynamic Ocean Topography (MDOT) dataset, but had to be confirmed by looking directly at ocean buoy and vertical temperature profile data”. Further details (selection):

• The stripes have velocities around 1-1.5cm/s,
• Most changes in sea surface height, velocity, and temperature occur over thousands of kilometers.
• These st...