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Professor Sybren Drijfhout acknowledge: Ocean forcing the atmosphere

Ever closer to reality – Global warming caused by the oceans

Post: May 20, 2018

It is that easy! Global mean temperatures are always forced by changes in heat release and heat uptake by the oceans. That is the core message of an essay by  Professor Sybren Drijfhout from Southhampton University: The relation between natural variations in ocean heat uptake and global mean surface temperature anomalies in CMIP5 ; is published on 9th May 2018 in Nature Scientific Reports. It says: “New research has shown that natural variations in global mean temperature are always forced by changes in heat release and heat uptake by the oceans, in particular the heat release associated with evaporation“.

However, big reservations need to be made. It is OK that the essay is very technical. It is inacceptable that it is far away to explain the role of the global oceans in global warming and cooling matters. Instead it is merely talking about models, models and more models. But models can only be of help if the physical mechanism behind the weather and climate system is understood. For that it is necessary to mention that the oceanic heat content is 1000-times bigger that of the air and has only an average temperature of mere plus 4° Celsius.

Talking about the warming of the oceans, should not only be subject to computer simulation, but should consider possible causes. A major factor is definitely human activities at sea. Shipping, fishing, and off-shore facilities have a huge impact on the sea surface temperature (SST). All screw driven vessels and boats are likely to turn over the    upper sea-level on a distance of 100 Million kilometers very day. This is a huge potential for warming the oceans. Since motor ships cross the seas, the global temperatures are on the rise, except for the two world-wars related periods. HERE & HERE.

As Professor Sybren Drijfhout research is confined to shown that in all cases variations in global mean temperature were correlated with variations in heat release by sensible and latent heat; it will be still a long way to understand the human contribution on ocean warming. It sound even naive when he says “these variations are associated with heat transfer due to temperature differences between the surface ocean and the overlying air, and heat transfer associated with evaporation. The heat fluxes are also called the turbulent heat fluxes.”  More in a press-release.

At least the blog Watts-Up-With-That“ (WUWT) picked up the message regarding it as vindication for Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. who has said that global ocean heat content is the best metric for tracking global warming. (WUWT-05/15/18) Prof. Pielke Sr is one of the very few who is willing to give the ocean a more prominent role in climate change matters, but is hardly much closer to it as Prof Drijfhout. But that is another story. For the moment it is important if an essay considers: Ocean forcing the atmosphere, and global warming caused by the oceans.

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“The science of climate change causing wars is not solid” – Vice-versa is correct!

Still ignored that naval wars changed climate

Posted: 01 May 2018

A recent guest essay by Albert Parker at WUWT, (28. April 2018) states:
There have been many recent claims that “climate change” was the reason for conflicts, with also the war in Syria explained by the anthropogenic carbon dioxide emission. However, this is not settled science, as this claim is wrong.”

He is right and he explains it to some extent – which the interested reader should read in full HERE -, but he is talking nonsense either, when ignoring the correlation between the two World Wars 100 and 70 years ago, as discussed many times here in previous posts.

The Parker-Essay miss to analyze of the presented temperature data for Berlin-Tempelhof and Berlin-Dahlem with the caption (in red):

Fig. 1 – Wrongly phased anthropogenic global warming for the start and the end of World War II. World War II did not start because of an early outbreak of anthropogenic global warming and did not end with more renewable energy and more carbon taxes mitigating this warming. Temperatures in Berlin were at a record low at the start of World War II September 1, 1939, and more than 3 degrees Celsius higher when Soviet soldiers raised their flag on top of the Reichstag building on May 2, 1945. Top temperature profiles from NASA GISS (GHCN V2 on left, GHCN V3 on the right) in Berlin – Temple. Middle images from Wikipedia of the start and end of the war. Bottom temperature profiles from NASA GISS (GHCN V2 on left, GHCN V3 on the right) in Berlin – Dahlem.

A more in-depth research would have shown that the sudden drop of the annual temperature in 1940 was actually a winter issues. Out of nowhere the winter 1939/40 was the coldest for more than 100 years, as well as the subsequent winter 1940/41 and 1941/42. In so far it is important to realize that the sudden extraordinary weather condition prevailed during the winter seasons. As the influence of the sun diminishes strongly from October to February, it is much easier to investigate the causes. When taking into account that main region of coldness stretched from Great Britain to St. Petersburg and Moscow, respectively covered the North – and Baltic Sea, it is inevitable to consider a decisive link to the huge naval activities in these semi-enclosed waters. They store heat during the summer season, which is released during winter. The more the water is churned by winter of human activities, the quicker the heat is released, diminishing the heating capacity. Cold air from the Arctic or Siberia can establish their reign over Europe up the North Atlantic. That easy was it to plunge the war winter 1939/40 to a record low.

The impact of naval war on the first three war winter in WWII is evident (see links to a detailed analysis: below).  The three first WWII winter in Europe could serve as evidence how easy climate can be changed by human activities. Actually it happened in connection with the First World War, and moreover the three decades global cooling from 1940 to mid-1970 is a serious naval war matter.

Hence the guest blogger Albert Parker, misses the problem he discus complete, but stands in line with main stream climatology neither able or willing that oceans-govern-climate, and that they fail to prove by analyzing the impact of naval war on weather and climate in the two World Wars.

The book: 
by Dr. Arnd Bernaerts

Links to nine Chapters on Naval War during the  1st war winter 1939/40 Book pages 13 to 104