Date: December 31, 2020
In science a precise and transparent language is paramount. Climatology is far from it. Many of the used terms in climatology are extremely superficial, if not meaningless, which is a major reason for the hysteria in the current climate change debate. And science is using them recklessly.
The result is obvious, when the claim is made: The world may already have crossed a series of climate tipping points, which mean an ‘existential threat to civilization’.(The Guardian, Nov.2019). Many climate scientists have warned that CO2 has pushed Earth dangerously close to a no-return threshold, beyond which lies an unlivable hothouse world. (See: Phy.Org Nov 2019). This belongs in the department: Scare monger machine.
The term ‘tipping point’ has its origin in physics and chemistry, meaning: that if an object becomes unbalanced, even a slight force can cause it to topple. Note that this explanation refers to “one object”.
Currently, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Chang (IPCC) says:
___ IPCC, Glossary – 4/06/2018.Tipping point: A level of change in system properties beyond which a system reorganizes, often abruptly, and does not return to the initial state even if the drivers of the change are abated. For the climate system, it refers to a critical threshold when global or regional climate changes from one stable state to another stable state.
___Wikipedia cites the IPCC in this way: The IPCC AR5 defines a tipping point as an irreversible change in the climate system.
The problem starts with referring to “a climate system”. The IPCC (2018) defines it as a“highly complex system consisting of five major components: the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, the cryosphere, the lithosphere and the biosphere and the interactions between them”, which has two principal flows:
It actually means nothing else as the interaction of nature, which explains nothing. All that this boils down to is ‘the interactions of the natural system’. What is the point of a term if it explains nothing? (See Letter to Nature, 1992)
Worst is the use of the word ‘climate’, which according IPCC is the statistic of average weather over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years, culminating in the fact that IPCC does not explains in the Glossary, what it regards as ‘weather’. (Discussion HERE)
The corresponding Glossary of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) is neither very helpful, merely saying that: The “present weather” table consists of 100 possible conditions, (More HERE ), thereby paving the way to a meaning that cannot be verified. There is no ‘object’, like in physics, which can become unbalanced, as mentioned above. But scientists speak about it, as if they understand the complexity of the unexplained.
T.M. Lenton et.al.paper from 2008 started with the sentence: The term “tipping point” commonly refers to a critical threshold at which a tiny perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system. The same authors: T.M. Lenton, S. Rahmstorf and HJ. Schellnhuber, et. al, published recently again an article in NATURE, 27. Nov. 2019, titled: “Climate tipping points — too risky to bet against”. They talk about ice collapse, biosphere boundaries, global cascade, offering nothing more than the believe, that by strongly forcing the system, with atmospheric CO2 concentration and global temperature increasing at rates that are an order of magnitude higher than those during the most recent deglaciation. Not one word can be found that the earth got warmer since the end of the Little Ice Age, around 1850, about 100 years before consumption of fossil fuel raised the CO2 level significantly. Not one word about the entire impact of the ocean and the impact of human activities at sea may have had since industrialization commenced. But like their paper in 2008, their tipping-points scenarios aim to raise scare, concluding with the warning: „We argue that the intervention time left to prevent tipping could already have shrunk towards zero, whereas the reaction time to achieve net zero emissions is 30 years at best. Hence we might already have lost control of whether tipping happens. A saving grace is that the rate at which damage accumulates from tipping — and hence the risk posed — could still be under our control to some extent.The stability and resilience of our planet is in peril. International action — not just words — must reflect this.”
Even the skeptical think-tank Global Warming Policy Forum (GWP), adopted the claim that “Global warming alone is insufficient to cause such a tipping point”, and that a better “insights into the role of water vapor may help researchers predict how the planet will respond to warming”. They cite an analysis by the MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) in September 2018.The mere reference to atmospheric water vapor is very naive, because to a very high degree the oceans control it (see Fig. below). In a world were annually averaged sea surface temperature is about 16°C, but the overall ocean mean temperature are merely +4°C , even mentioning a tipping point, would indicate incompetence in climatic matters. That applies also to the above cited authors, T.M. Lenton, S. Rahmstorf and HJ. Schellnhuber, when they refer in their 2019 paper, inter alia, to parts of the oceans, in the Arctic, Antarctic and North-Atlantic. Discussing the general term tipping point without having a thorough insight into the interior of the oceans is a hopeless undertaking, if at all possible.
Every attempt to identify a tipping point in the natural system shows that users of the term understand little about the matter, and nothing about the oceans.
War in 1939 caused several weather records in the U.S.A.
Post: 29th December 2020
In autumn 1939 there is war in East Asia, and war in Europe. And suddenly the weather produce records, from wettest to coldest, across the USA.
Record wetness month September 1939 in Arizona (see Fig. 4 below)
Record driest month in November 1939 in 9 States (see Fig. 6 below)
Record warmest month in December 1939 in 3 States (see Fig. 8 below)
Record coldest month in January 1940 in in 7 States (see Fig. 2)
Weather changes in Europe are much more dramatic, but that is another story. Here we deal with weather records in the United States. The extraordinary conditions, almost eight decades ago, should be thoroughly explained for two reasons:
Were the records anthropogenic influenced?
Marked the records the start of the global cooling until the mid-1970th, the only and most severe cooling period since the end of the Little Ice Age about 1850.
Even the smallest percentage contributed by human activities to the weather pattern in winter 1939/40 needs to be understood and discussed in the general debate on climate change.
Three records in late 1939 culminated in the coldest (Fig. 2)
The fact that the first signs of a real winter emerged at Christmas time 1939 (NYT, Dec. 23, 1939) was presumably not worth a doctor’s thesis at any time. Neither that the winter earnestly came in early January 1940, with a frigid wave that gripped most of the United States (NYT, Jan. 6, 1940). Icy north-westerly winds swept over New York with force, on January 6, causing temperatures to drop to an average of 10 degrees Fahrenheit below normal. Frigid waves even touched northern parts of Florida (NYT, Jan. 07, 1940).
But the information by Dr. James Kimball published in ‘The New York Times’ on January 7th, 1940, that November 1939 had been unusually dry, should have been investigated by science, why that had happened, and whether military activities in China and Europe, and the increase of condensation nuclei had anything to do with it. The less humidity is in the atmosphere, the more easily it can be replaced by colder air. If the amount of water in the atmosphere is less than average, the ‘vacuum’ thus created, needs to be filled by air. The fact that the Northern Hemisphere was in such a state towards the end of the year 1939 is very likely and science could have found out why long ago. The USA had records in September, in November and December, which made it easy for Arctic air to travel south to filling up the gap. A detailed assessment is at: http://www.seaclimate.com/c/c4/c4.html,
A special September 1939 in California (Fig.4)
In September 1939 the sun state had to cope with a number of weather caprioles. The unanswered question until today is what role an El Niño event had in that place at that time, and the contribution of war activities in China and Europe, due to the excessive release of condensation nuclei. Much too extraordinary and seldom was the situation that caused high precipitation during September with 370% above normal in California (Alabama, 119%; Arizona, 335%; Nevada 327%; Utah 261%).
California experienced an eight-day-long heat wave since about September 16th before a tropical storm, formerly a hurricane, hit Southern California , at San Pedro early on the 25th with winds of severe gale force. The up to 11 Beaufort strong winds were the only tropical storm to make landfall in California in the twentieth century. The air pressure went down to 971 mb, and the excessive rain caused heavy flooding, e.g. September records in Los Angeles (5.24 inches in 24 hours) and at Mount Wilson, 295mm/11.60inches). It was the heaviest September rain in Los Angeles’ weather history and it broke the worst heat wave in Weather Bureau records, as measured by intensity and duration. (NYT, Sept.26,1939).
The scientific disinterest in investigating whether the exceptional conditions had been a reflex action in the atmosphere that reached North America from the French-German, or the Polish-German front in Europe, e.g. from thousands of planes in the air, from shelling and burning down Polish villages and Warsaw, or even from fighting in China is stunning. That El Niño had a stake in the issue will be hard to prove, as the air temperatures at the equatorial Pacific was neutral, if not in La Niña condition (see: Fig. at left).
For references and further details see http://www.seaclimate.com/f/f.html .
The driest November on record (Fig. 6)
Except for a few States in the east (see above), the fall season was extremely dry over large areas. For all the areas east of the Rocky Mountains it was the driest fall on record (Martin, 1939). For about 9 States it is the all-time record and the dryness must have severely affected southern Canada as well. Time magazine titled on December 25th, 1939: “WEATHER: Driest Fall”, and reported “the driest fall on record, a severe case of spotted drought affecting 97,000,000 U.S. acres. About 16 States had less than 33% of their normal November precipitation.
The warmest month in December 1939 in 3 States
(see Fig. 8) (without text)
What else was curious in late 1939?
The 1930s were famous for the ‘Dust Bowl’, during which severe dust storms caused agricultural damage to American and Canadian prairie lands. In some areas this phenomenon lasted until fall of 1939, when regular rainfall finally returned to the region.
After extreme amounts of precipitation in September and dryness in November (see above) December came along with another curiosity. The overall monthly temperature record was considerably above average (TM5). In three States the all-time record had been observed. In the east, a change was already expected for the beginning of the holiday season: “White Christmas is likely for city” (NYT, Dec. 23, 1939). It took a few days longer for winter to come. On the 28th, it was time to report: “A biting northerly, driving grey, snow-laden clouds before it, brought to New York yesterday the coldest day of the winter. Shortly before 10 A.M. the mercury dropped to 11.9°F above zero”(11°C), (NYT, Dec. 28). Soon in 1940 the “Winds sweep the city as cold grips the U.S. ”, with “a mark of 11°F below (-24°C) in Indiana (NYT, Jan. 07, 1940. An exceptionally cold January 1940 had reached the United States , as shown in Figure 2 (above)
Further north, in Canada, the situation was partly reverse, as Brooks (1940) explained in a paper only few months later:
“Paradoxically, most of eastern Canada north of latitude 48° was above normal, with temperatures ranging up to more than 25°F above normal north of latitude 58° and 18°F above normal in the interior of Alaska. Missouri was actually as cold as the Hudson Bay region for the month”.
The Timing: The ‘timing’ between excessive rain in Europe and the dry months in the United States is a perfect indication of the relationship between both events. Any ‘interchange’ between dry and wet air takes its time. A dry or humid air body can exist from up to several days to a few weeks. An ‘air body’ needs a couple of weeks to circle the Northern Hemisphere. Scherhag (1951), analysed a disruption in the circulation of air in the winter of 1940, and states with regard to air movements that there must have been a subsequent air-body-transfer (“Massentransport”) from the Southern Hemisphere towards the Arctic, which means, that ‘dry air’ from Europe could have circled the globe for some time before a ‘humidity gap’ could be refilled. This also confirms that there was a ‘humidity gap’ in the first place. If the ‘dry-out’ had not been caused by military activities, what else could have caused it?
Record Warmest vs. Record Coldest: The fact that temperatures in December 1939 had been widely above normal, versus the observation that in the south-east of the U.S. recorded values were much below normal with eight States experiencing the coldest January on record should be enough reason to ask why, and to consider whether it had something to do with war activities elsewhere.
The Regions Covered: January 1940 was cold in all Northern Hemisphere regions, viz. North America, Northern Europe and Northern Asia. This is a strong indication that there was too little humidity in the air (as proven in the case of the USA – above), giving arctic air a free path to penetrate deep into southern regions.
Difference between the winters in the USA and Europe: A further piece of evidence is the fact that the severity of the winter in the United States was over by the end of January 1940 (Brooks, 1940), whereas extreme winter conditions prevailing in Northern Europe during February 1940 show that a number of countries, e.g. Holland, Northern Germany and Southern Scandinavia, experienced their coldest winter for more than a 100 years.
Lower air circulation: The winter of 1939/40 was the result of a comprehensive general disruption of the atmospheric circulation, which could be regarded as a ‘prototype’ for a weakened circulation. Less humidity in the atmosphere and lower temperatures in seas and oceans, due to naval warfare in the waters of Northern Europe , inevitably caused disruptions in atmospheric air movements.
A number of indications show that the war in Europe and in China may have significantly influenced winter weather conditions over long distances. In this case, North America had a severely cold January in 1940. Most likely, it had been supported by a lack of usual rain in the United States during the months of October to December 1939, in the first place due to generating condensation nuclei by military activities in Asia, in Poland and along the Western Front in Europe. The obvious “rain forcing” in autumn 1939 that caused low humidity in the atmosphere, made it easy for arctic air to forcefully travel down to the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The timing of ‘dry air’ and the invasion of polar air over all NH continents suggest that this was not a mere natural variation. The drier the air properties at lower latitudes are, the easier arctic air can spread southwards. The lower maritime influence is (warm moist air), the more continental conditions will prevail (cold dry air). The Northern Hemisphere felt it with full force in January 1940. A severe winter, the coldest in one hundred years in countries bordering the most war-affected seas in Northern Europe, did not come ‘just out of the blue’, but it was a combination of too dry air circling the hemisphere and naval operations in the marine environment of Europe.
For references and further details see:
For a complete overview on WWII and Weather from September 1939 to February 1940 consult
Book 2012, Chapter C1 to C9 (page 43-104) at: http://www.seaclimate.com/
The NYT reported on soldiers that “turned to wax” on Christmas Eve 1939.
An unsolved climate case: Why?
Post: 21th December 2020; Read 4 min.
Climate change has two sides. If natural we do not need science. If we assume it could be man-made, competent science is needed to explain why and able to say what needs to done to prevent it. Here we raise a very significant weather event, which science has never attempted to explain, even eight decades have passed. What a big mistake!
World War II was only four months old, and suddenly the weather run amok in Norther Europe. Although “The New York Times” reported from Rovaniemi/Finland on December 25, 1939, a highly challenging weather story, climatology completely ignored ever since. They never asked why it happened ‘out of the blue’, whether it could have been significantly cause by man, who had been in the fourth month of World War II. James Aldridge reported to the NYT on December 24th 1939 the very sad story, which reveals a lot about those claiming to understand how the atmosphere works. Read yourself:
“The cold numbs the brain in this Arctic hell, snow sweeps over the darkened wastes, the winds howl and the temperature is 30 degrees below zero (minus 34.4° C). Here the Russians and Finns are battling in blinding snowstorms for possession of ice-covered forests. …I reached the spot just after the battle ended. It was the most horrible sight I had ever seen. As if the men had been suddenly turned to wax, there were two or three thousand Russians and a few Finns, all frozen in fighting attitudes. Some were locked together, their bayonets within each other’s bodies; some were frozen in half-standing positions; some were crouching with their arms crooked, holding the hand grenades they were throwing; some were lying with their rifles shouldered, their legs apart….Their fear was registered on the frozen faces. Their bodies were like statues of men throwing all their muscles and strength into some work, but the faces recorded something between bewilderment and horror”.
Few further information:
___In December 1939; Total losses of the Finnish armed forces were: about 13.200
Temperature forecast Rovaniemi/Finland, 19-31 Dec. 2020; (see image)
The very cold Christmas in Finland 1939 was only the beginning of a dramatic winter in Europe. It became the most severe in many parts of Europe for more than one-hundred years. There are plenty indication that the war contributed heavily. But neither meteorology nor climatology have ever shown any interest, on either confirm the anthropogenic massive contribution, or demonstrate competence by naming a different causation of the extraordinary winter 1939/40.
Or do they fear undermining their greenhouse theory? It would indeed be shocking to learn after almost a full century that man is to blame for the horrible Christmas story that James Aldridge has covered in the NYT.
The so called ‘Winter War’ between Russia and Finland lasted from November 30, 1939 to March 13, 1940. Poland had already over-run and Warsaw already “burned down” in September 1939. In the European war scenario, the war activities in Finland during December 1939 were only a “sideline” in the whole war picture. Nevertheless, the NYT Christmas story reported a remarkable event, serious enough that should have caught the attention of science.
After all, climatology is dispensable, if not able and willing to investigate any case, whether big or small, which may indicate how human activities could or have contributed to significant weather events and climatic changes. What a big failure. Eight decades have passed without to take note of James Aldridge’s Christmas story 1939.
Why is Europe so warm? Read the post 17. Debember 2020 at : https://1ocean-1climate.com/
Human activities at sea contribute to warming. Science can test it in the Baltic Sea how it’s done.
A big Arctic Warming started 102 Years ago!
Human caused? The interest is nil!
Post: 09 December 2020