Ever closer to reality – Global warming caused by the oceans
Post:May 20, 2018
It is that easy! Global mean temperatures are always forced by changes in heat release and heat uptake by the oceans. That is the core message of an essay by Professor Sybren Drijfhout from Southhampton University: The relation between natural variations in ocean heat uptake and global mean surface temperature anomalies in CMIP5 ; is published on 9th May 2018 in Nature Scientific Reports. It says: “New research has shown that natural variations in global mean temperature are always forced by changes in heat release and heat uptake by the oceans, in particular the heat release associated with evaporation. “
However, big reservations need to be made. It is OK that the essay is very technical. It is inacceptable that it is far away to explain the role of the global oceans in global warming and cooling matters. Instead it is merely talking about models, models and more models. But models can only be of help if the physical mechanism behind the weather and climate system is understood. For that it is necessary to mention that the oceanic heat content is 1000-times bigger that of the air and has only an average temperature of mere plus 4° Celsius.
Talking about the warming of the oceans, should not only be subject to computer simulation, but should consider possible causes. A major factor is definitely human activities at sea. Shipping, fishing, and off-shore facilities have a huge impact on the sea surface temperature (SST). All screw driven vessels and boats are likely to turn over the upper sea-level on a distance of 100 Million kilometers very day. This is a huge potential for warming the oceans. Since motor ships cross the seas, the global temperatures are on the rise, except for the two world-wars related periods. HERE & HERE.
As Professor Sybren Drijfhout research is confined to shown that in all cases variations in global mean temperature were correlated with variations in heat release by sensible and latent heat; it will be still a long way to understand the human contribution on ocean warming. It sound even naive when he says “these variations are associated with heat transfer due to temperature differences between the surface ocean and the overlying air, and heat transfer associated with evaporation. The heat fluxes are also called the turbulent heat fluxes.” More in a press-release.
At least the blog Watts-Up-With-That“ (WUWT) picked up the message regarding it as vindication for Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. who has said that global ocean heat content is the best metric for tracking global warming. (WUWT-05/15/18) Prof. Pielke Sr is one of the very few who is willing to give the ocean a more prominent role in climate change matters, but is hardly closer it as Prof Drijfhout. But that is another big story. For the moment it is important if an essay considers: Ocean forcing the atmosphere, and global warming caused by the oceans.