Make statistics stupid? Drives atmosphere climate?

Climate variability in the North Atlantic is atmosphere driven a new study claims. [ScienceDaily, 15 October 2015] explaining: that the pattern1a_ of the AMO*) can be accounted for by atmospheric circulation alone, without any role for the ocean circulation.
Is that serious? The AMO pattern is based on statistical analyses of observational and proxy climate data. If the study compares climate models that include ocean circulation with climate models that have no ocean circulation, and concludes that ocean circulation may not play as prominent a role as previously thought, the researcher ignore the difference in dimension involved. The correlation between sea and air is about 1:1000. Small difference (howsoever explained) not rectify to question that the North Atlantic is the principle driver of regional temperatures and weather.

*) AMO – Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation.
ScienceDaily : University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science. “New study questions long-held theories of climate variability in the North Atlantic: Atmosphere appears to drive decades-long climate variations.” ScienceDaily, 15 October 2015.

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25 thoughts on “Make statistics stupid? Drives atmosphere climate?

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  16. 100% agree! We use computer models in a world (the oceans) that is so little known, but we keep forgetting to take a look at the past and learn from our mistake, including from the ones that have influenced our climate.

  17. Congratulation for pushing the oceans-govern-climate issue. Even Cambridge scientists start to understand that “changes in ocean currents in the Atlantic Ocean were related to climate conditions in the northern hemisphere during the last ice age” NATURE 12/Oct/15: “Ocean currents therefore have a strong influence on whether regions of the world are warm (such as Europe) or whether they are not (such as Antarctica) as they modulate the effects of solar radiation.”

  18. Interesting post and link; seems quite naive discussing the North Atlantic ocean-atmosphere variability along statistic and models.

    1. Agree! “We used computer models in a new way to test this idea, and find that in fact there is a lot that can be explained without the ocean circulation.”, says Professor Amy Clement, the lead author on the study, without any clue how much the study knows about Atlantic circulation. . .

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