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How Climate gets Europe winter free

Do human activities at sea keep heavy cold at bay ?

Posted: 15th March 2019

The same procedure as last year, when the winter 2017/18 was here discussed as well, basically with the same text. In Europe’s winter are getting warmer at a pace faster than global average (Details HERE). The current winter proves it again. Whereas North America saw record braking freezing temperatures during the last months, Europe is spared of wintery weather until now. The most likely reason is increasing ocean use, particularly by off-shore windfarms and shipping, which churn the sea like moving spoon in a hot coffee pot. While climatology is not able to consider this mechanism, any cold from the Arctic or Siberia is kept at bay.  That should have been common knowledge since long, at least since the commencing days of World War II.

Actually the story is simple. Since the Little Ice Age has ended around 1850, the world has been getting warmer. By the end of the 1930s the temperatures, particularly in the Norther Hemisphere, increased to level close to current values. That stopped abruptly during the first war winter 1939/40. The cause is to attribute to excessive ocean penetration due to naval warfare on a grand scale, bombs, sea mines, depth charges, many million shells, and thousands of vessels, navigating, fighting, mine-operation, surveillance, and training. However, the impact on the winter conditions than and today seems contradicting. Winter 1939/40 was in many locations the coldest for up to 200 years or ever recorded, while currently climatology will soon declare Europe’s winter 2017/18 the warmest ever. The tragic is that both cases have the same source, man-made climatic changes, but science does not know, and is unable to inform politics and the general public correctly.

The way man has contributed to the extreme climate conditions in winter 1939/40 and 2018/19 is based on the same physically-dynamic process. The starting point is the intake of heat during the summer season in the reginal seas around Europe, particularly in the North- and Baltic Sea, which will be released during the subsequent winter. This ‘natural’ process is meanwhile greatly enhanced by human activities. The more or the longer the atmosphere gets an extra heat input, the less any Arctic or Siberian cold will get a chance to govern the winter in Europe. But the stored heat is not unlimited. If the available heat is released too quickly, the result reverses. When reginal seas are cooled to ‘unusual levels’, Siberian icy cold air can easily travel to the Atlantic shore. That occurred in winter 1939/40, see Fig.2.
 Please check also the difference in sea ice conditions as shown in the various images.  

The winter meanwhile 79 years ago, could easily explain how reginal climate works. One needs only to imagine the picture of a baby bath with too warm water to bath the baby. The water will be turned around until the temperature is right for the baby. The longer it is turned the colder it gets. Is it so difficult to acknowledge and apply the every day experience with a too hot soup? The warring naval forces did the same across the coastal seas in Europe. It took only four months, and the first WWII winter run amok. Ignoring the case entirely raises the question of gross negligence. WWII contributed to a global cooling from 1940 to the mid-1970s. Ocean uses in all its facets, is likely to have contributed to the global warming over the last 150 years. The vast installation of hundreds of off-shore windfarms during the last decade is certainly a contributing factor to the higher than the global warming of the seas around Europe. In the North and Baltic Seas temperatures increased five to six times faster than the global average over the past 25 years, and three times faster in the Black and Mediterranean Seas. (Related Essay in PDF) Science spend many billions to prove a correlation between CO2 and global warming, but not one cent on how shipping, fishing industry and naval activities in war time have influenced weather and climate conditions since the end of the Little Ice Age around 1850.  Climate science behaves irresponsible.

Furter Reading

Links to nine Chapters on Naval War during the

1st war winter 1939/40. Book pages 13 to 104

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Too low sea ice conditions in the Baltic Sea – Winter 2018/19 versus 1939/40ff

How big is the human influence on the low sea ice?

Posting: March 03, 2019

This winter sea ice is shockingly low, practically not existing in early March 2019. Why is there such a big difference between now and the first three war winters 1939/40ff.

A previous post asked: “Europe winter free – Thank to off-shore windfarms” one year ago? Comparing the current sea ice conditions with those of long-term average, raise the curiosity even further. There is even less sea ice as a year ago. Two month ago, the Met-Off discussed the possibility of another   “Beast from the East’ early in 2019?” This side commended:

“Please be prepared for further information and analysis on winter weather development then and now and whether it is acceptable for one of the leading meteorological services not to be interested and able to explain the weather events after four months of World War II.”

The beast did not come. The Siberian cold in Siberia did not build up, respectively the Atlantic cyclone-system too powerful to give any cold air from the Arctic or Serbia any chance to reach the western Atlantic shore, see the weather may of today and the nutshell-image.

Fact is that North- and Baltic Sea warm faster than any other sea area. (see Fig. 5), which means that they store more heat during the summer season and are able to release more during the winter season, paving the way an easy flow of cyclones from west to east. This has been extensively discussed HERE.

Neither should climate science ignore the higher warming of the sea in Norther Europe than elsewhere, even less should the do it with exceptional sea ice conditions 80 years ago, but take serious what Swedish sea-ice expert C.J. Oestman observed concerning he conditions in winter 1940:

The severe winter ice conditions, particularly the spread and thickness of sea ice extent, have again drawn great interest in the unusual cold of last winter, as well as the associated strong ice forming.

Oestman, C.J. (1941); ‘Isvintern 1940-41 – En jämförselse med 1939-40’, Statens Met-Hydro.
Anst., Meddelanden Ser. Uppsatser, No. 38, Stockholm, pp. 2-10.

At the end of his 25 page report he lists the severe winters during which the Swedish coast was entirely covered with ice. During the 70 years of regular observations it happened only eight times, five times between 1870/71 and 1892/93, and during the winter 1916/17, 1923/24 and 1939/40.   A detailed analysis is HERE.

C.J. Oestman (op.cit.) already realized that the meteorological cause for the arctic conditions was:

“The highs (over North Europe), however supported a uniform inflow of cold air from northern Russia and Siberia, but blocked the way for mild air currents from the Atlantic and southern latitudes.”

What more does climate science need to investigate the role of man in the current warming of Europe’s winter, respectively the sudden and extraordinary cooling during the winters 1939/40. The sea-ice conditions would be an interesting part in any serious considerations.