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Court hearing on global warming! Clarity by tutorial? .

Ocean relevance was not an issue!

Post: 30th March 2018

Anthropogenic global warming (AGW) has reached the court room. A lawsuits by State of California vs BP, Chevron and others, charge that oil products are a public nuisance (court documents).  The Judge William Alsup ordered to held a Tutorial on 21st March 2018 , inter alias  concerning: “formation and melting of the ice ages, periods of historical cooling and warming, smog, ozone, nuclear winter, volcanoes, and global warming” for being introduced to “the best science now available on global warming.”

The Order did not request a tutorial on the role of the ocean. Water is what matters most in climate matters. The ocean hold 1000times more water than the atmosphere, but have only a mean temperature of about 4° Celsius (Fig. 2 & 3). 6  After a five hours hearing recorded in the page 189 long court-transcript, the court was merely introduced to the findings of IPCC since 1990, respectively AGW advocates. Even the defendants did not object but made the case: “that oil companies are not directly responsible for climate change. Rather humanity’s larger economic decisions are to blame.”

Is it worth to read the transcript? Actually: No! At best it is a summary of what IPCC and other AGW opponents are talking about. Ever since, for them is the ocean only a random issue. For example they tell the Court:

Excerpt from court-transcript: page 123f (concerning the last Century EARLY WARMING; see Fig. 5) 

BOUTROUS: So that’s that figure. And let me go into a little bit more recent period, 1850 to 2012. And, again, 1850 was the end of the little ice age. And this is really the point the Court was just making. The IPCC AR5 concludes that: “Since 1901 almost the whole world has experienced surface warming. Warming has not been linear; most warming occurred in two periods: Around 1900 to around 1940 and around 1970 onwards.” And so, again,…. (cont/)……
………..And since I knew you would ask me what caused that warming I thought I would just go with that quote because I think what they are basically saying is that in the early 20th century, while it’s unlikely that the climate was functioning – the warming was caused by the climate functioning in its natural course, internal variability, the IPCC couldn’t quantify any contributions to the warming from potential other causes, like changes in the sun or volcanos. That’s the natural forcing.
THE COURT: What does “internal variability” mean?
MR. BOUTROUS: That is their phrase for just describing the natural, natural variability in the climate without some event like a volcanic eruption, which is what they call a natural forcing sort of an event. (cont/)

That is an extreme superficial view, because the warming 1920-1940 was primarily an Arctic and Northern Hemisphere issue (see Fig. 4) and commenced together with the First World War (Fig. 5).

Another example of pure gossip one can find on page 183f:

THE COURT: Give us an example. Give us an example of a theoretical or plausible surprise out of the blue.
MR. WUEBBLES: Besides the permafrost melting?
THE COURT: Yes. Yes, that’s a good example, but give us another one.
MR. WUEBBLES: So another one would be the melting of Artic sea ice…..(cont/)
….page 184…
THE COURT: What kind?
MR. WUEBBLES: Biospheric production.
THE COURT: Oh, biosphere. Okay.
WUEBBLES: Yes. So the changes in El Niño events. You know, if we were to have a lot more El Niño events that would add to the overall warming. There’s a lot of other aspects that are surprises, things we don’t really expect but they are things we just don’t know about.

The ocean covers 71% of the globe; El Niño covers an ocean space that is a small fraction of 1%. Any ocean space has at any time a huge impact on the atmosphere and drives average air temperatures. The fact that an El Niño is a significant event, tells nothing about how the ocean contributes to warming and cooling.  Telling the Judge that “more El Niño events that would add to the overall warming”, is hardily helpful.

One should not expect that the court ruling will improve the climatic change controversy in any way. After all merely requested information and explained it at the hearing as it follows (From the transcript: Page  6 &  7):

THE COURT:
Okay. So let me just say to you two, as well as to the public, that I read in the paper a couple of weeks ago that this was going to be like the Scopes Monkey Trial. And I was — I couldn’t help but laugh. But this is not a trial. I want everyone out there, the newspaper people, please

don’t call this a trial. This is not a trial. In these technology cases, mainly the patent cases, but not just patent, we often have these tutorials so that the poor Judge can learn some science, and it helps to understand the science….. (cont/)….This is a serious proposition to try to educate the Judge. So that’s the purpose.

 

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Europe’s Cold Spring – Man Made?

2nd Shivering in mid-March 2018

Posted: 17th  March 2018

The Cold’s arrive again. Only three weeks ago our post The ‘Beast from the East’ – Off-Shore windfarms pave the way” discussed the sudden cold snap in Europe, because it is highly possible that human activities at sea, contribute to unexpected low temperatures influx from the Far-East. The explanation is simple: As soon as the reginal seas across Europe have lost too much of their heat stored during the summer season, cold air from Siberian can reach Europe and establish reign for days or weeks, respectively delay the arrival of spring.

The last few days weather development support the thesis. Europe’s spring, respectively the months April, May and June are likely to show sub-temperature, as indicated in Fig. 1. Already forthcoming April the forecast indicates a significant negative anomaly (Fig. 2), with the North Sea and Baltics in focus. Why does it happen exactly in the regions? The explanation presumably stems from the various anthropogenic activities at sea. Lengthy discussed HERE:

We now briefly record the current cold snap, as mentioned by weather.com (15/17 March 2018, shortened):

The Cold’s Arrival – The 2nd Beast from the East.

Temperature drops of 10 degrees Celsius can be expected as the cold air arrives Friday into the weekend. “Sunday will be the coldest day with maximum temperatures struggling to lift above freezing across the U.K., Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, northern France and southern Scandinavia.” Wind chill values may dip as low as minus 10 degrees Celsius – equivalent to the mid-teens Fahrenheit. 

With cold air blowing over the North Sea and an upper-level pocket of cold air, areas of snow showers and squalls are once again a likelihood to the U.K, Ireland, northern France and southern Scandinavia this weekend.

Difference from the cold snap three weeks ago.

The cold air will work its way south and west into most of the rest of Europe later in the weekend (17/18 March). It is in this part of Europe where the cold will persist the longest well into the week of March 19-23. This pattern will also generate areas of snow that will persist through much of that week in southern, central and eastern Europe. Some of that snow will be moderate to heavy, not simply in the Alps, but also from parts of Germany and Poland to the Ukraine.

The phrase “Beast from the East” refers to the fact this cold air arrives on strong winds blowing east-to-west from Scandinavia over the North Sea into the British Isles and western Europe.

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Global Heat Account – Not without Shipping etc

Ships push more heat into than out of the ocean –
A major source of global warming since industrialization.

Post by Dr. Arnd Bernaerts, 10th March 2018

In a world which is getting steadily warmer it sound a good question to ask for the main source for the incremental rise in temperatures on earth. The excellent blog of Judith Curry did it (2018/03/09), while Willis Eschenbach picked up the subject at WUWT. It is worth to read both post,

Prof. Curry’s starting point is a reference to the IPCC AR5 (Report 2013) which concluded that:

It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by [humans]. The best estimate of the human induced contribution is similar to the observed warming over this period.

It is little Prof. Curry offers herself to contribute on her question where the heat is coming from. Neither does Willies Eschenbach who stress that nobody knows much about the up-and-down since the Romans, but that “ … none of those gradual temperature changes were caused by variations in CO2”. Subsequently he mentions that the sun is the source of all heat, but stress univocal:

“Now, does this show that the sun is indeed the cause of the gradual warming? ABSOLUTELY NOT. There are plenty of forces at play in even this restricted subset of climate variables, and the fact that a couple of them line up does NOT mean that one is causing the other.”

What Willis Eschenbach wants to say is simply: I do not know. Nobody knows. That sounds fair but is nevertheless unacceptable. Anyone who is aware that the earth is a water planet and water is as much essential for the weather (and climate) as the heat from the sun; and is aware of the size of the ocean with a ration to the atmosphere of 1000:1; and is aware that the mean ocean temperature is as low as about 4°C, would not exclude the ocean from any research and accounting of global heat and of global cooling.

A thorough assessment of shipping since using screw driven vessels, and other human activities at sea, would inevitable show that this contributed to global warming since the end of the LIA considerably. The tonnage has increase in 90 years by 2600% (Fig.5). A much more profound demonstration of man-made climate changes by maritime activities offer the  two World Wars; the First (1914-18) by a influencing the Ocean around Svalbard, causing a warming from 1918 to 1940 , and during the Second WW  (1939 -1945) revolving so much cold water to the sea surface that the world cooled for three decades. (see Fig. 1, 3 & 6) For details see: http://www.seaclimate.com/ and http://www.2030climate.com/

Again, Curry and Eschenbach are both excellent writers, serious and committed, but seem unable to raise the item which matters most in weather (and climate): the oceans. As Willis Eschenbach has extensive seagoing experience and regards himself as “…. a long-time ocean devotee.” , he could do more concerning the ocean-climate issue.