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El Niño – To be, or not to be

Weather will get interesting over the next months. Speculations are high. A rapidly strengthening El Niño event
will likely peak later this fall as one of the strongest El Niño event ever observed (24/09). 

23 September 2015 - Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly
23 September 2015
– Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly

There is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016 (NOAA). What does this mean for the upcoming winter season? That is the big question!

For Europe the risk of a colder is currently considered small, predicted UK-MetOffice recently. The GUARDIAN offers more options;

10 September: El Niño expected to hit US hard, but not enough to ease California drought. Climate officials warn winter’s weather pattern likely to be one of the strongest as effects are likely to be felt from December to March
17 September : The world has experienced record-breaking warmth every month so far this year, and Noaa scientists say global warming and El Niño are the cause
21 September: El Niño: a global weather event that may save California — and destroy the tropics.

The SST-Anomaly map indicates to two further areas of interest, with too warm SST in the Eastern North Pacific , and too cold SST in the North Atlantic. What is at stake? How will the winter 2015/16 be in North America, in Europe, and Siberia?

17. September :
21. September:

Image source:

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“Baltic 2” another climate change factor?

21 September 2015 /admin

Water temperture profile in southern Baltic Sea over a depth of 43 m at several levels
Water temperature profile in southern Baltic Sea over a depth of 43 m at several levels

FoundationScience has not yet explained why Norther Europe warms more than the rest of the world (REF.) Any impact of ocean use has not crossed their mind.  Today further 80 offshore wind turbines north of Rügen start-up, at a location which is between 23 to 40m deep. Over the seasons the temperature difference between top and bottom can reach more than 12°C and differ between various depths level and throughout the season. As the water masses of the Baltic is in move permanently, inevitable any kind of platform forms a considerable obstacle, forcing the “natural current” to change course. During summer that will force more heat in, and in winter more heat out. Regional air temperature is likely to increase. This is a very simple process to recognize. Too difficult for science to understand and investigate?


REF. : Offshore Wind-parks and mild Winters.

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Is Climate Science a Monster?

Skeptics are doing what scientists are supposed to do, that is disproving the AGW hypothesis, reminded Tim Ball in a recent WUWT comment [19. September.], when some IPCC members required to launch criminal charges against “climate deniers”. Of course such talking is ridiculous and irresponsible. But can Tim Ball require more serious behavior? Are skeptics so much better? Not when it comes to clear scientific terminology, as they use the same nonsense climate terms as the promoters of ‘official’ climate. Tim Ball is no exception (see here). Neither CLIMATE nor WEATHER is defined in a manner that servers discussion and understanding our water planet. That supports a “Climate Science turned Monster”, and skeptics inability to stop this trend. They could by requiring precise and clear terminology, which meet academic standards.

WUWT 09 September 2015

Dr. Tim Ball on:

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Climate variability linked to solar variations – Correct??

GEOMAR explains - 15 September 2015
GEOMAR explains – 15 September 2015

“Although the solar effect on the North Atlantic Oscillation explains only a few percent of the total variance, the close relationship between solar activity and phase North Atlantic Oscillation is an important indicator to improve the predictability of climate variability” say GEOMAR (press-release 15. Sept. 2015)

“Rising global temperatures since the industrial revolution cannot be attributed to increased solar activity”, reports (August 7, 2015); by concluding
“The apparent upward trend of solar activity between the 18th century and the late 20th century has now been identified as a major calibration error in the Group Sunspot Number. Now that this error has been corrected, solar activity appears to have remained relatively stable since the 1700s.”

It is time to put the sun in second or third position. There is no evidence that varying sun-ray has ever caused a significant and abrupt climatic change in many million years.


h/t: 07 August 2015:

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Big Changes Underway in the Climate System? asks UK-Met

Big Changes Underway in the Climate System?   MetOff-Sept.2015
Big Changes Underway in the Climate System? MetOff-Sept.2015

Did UK-Met get already in a 21 pages long analysis (September 2015) the first sentence wrong, by saying:

“The Earth’s global average surface climate is primarily determined by the exchange of energy between the atmosphere, the oceans and space”.
One may say that without being wrong, but it disguises the real dimensions over longer periods of time (climate), because the bulk of energy exchange is between oceans and space. Average surface temperatures depend highly on ocean heat storage and heat release.

The analysis confirm it by attributing any possible changes to the current status of El Niño, PDO, and AMO, not hesitating to conclude the report with a meaningless statement:
“ Further long-term global warming is expected over the coming decades but variations of climate worldwide from year to year or decade to decade will always depend on the subsequent variations in the patterns of climate variability described in this report.”



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Cold UK-summer 2015, which MetOff fails to explain.

MetOff. express concern (28.Aug.15; HERE-1): No-one can deny that we have had a pretty
disappointing summer with a lot of unsettled weather and only a few warm spells,
especially through  July and August.

How the sea keeps Greatbritain cold
How the sea keeps Great Britain cold

Meanwhile DAILYMAIL predicts (HERE-2): A cold snap will begin on Sunday in Scotland and is expected to spread southwards, bringing snowfall to parts of England and Wales by Wednesday. Worst! Birmingham hit by ‘snow’ in September in unseasonal deluge, reported BirminghammMail on 02nd Sept (HERE-3).
The reason is simple. The North Atlantic water temperature is significantly below average. It affected UK summer weather and will dampen global temperature level. The sea shows strength in weather making, but MetOff shows little interest. Instead they “look beyond our shores” (read about it HERE-1)

h/t Paul: NCEP/NCAR reanalysis shows frigid summer conditions across the north. - See more at:
h/t Paul: NCEP/NCAR reanalysis shows frigid summer conditions across the north. – See more at: