Posted: 10 August 2015
The time may end soon eventually that the sun is responsible for significant climatic changes, as new research indicates:
“Rising global temperatures since the industrial revolution cannot be attributed to increased solar activity”, reports Phys.org. (August 7, 2015); by concluding
“The apparent upward trend of solar activity between the 18th century and the late 20th century has now been identified as a major calibration error in the Group Sunspot Number. Now that this error has been corrected, solar activity appears to have remained relatively stable since the 1700s.”
It is time to put the sun in second or third position. There is no evidence that varying sun-ray has ever caused a significant and abrupt climatic change in many million years. Changing sun-ray will influence sea surface temperature accordingly, which show up in statistics, but that does not cause climatic changes. The control button is in the hand of the driver of climate, the ocean. The sun is insignificant in the global warming 1920-1940, and the global cooling 1940-1970, the oceans not.
Anthony Watts’ recent post (30. July 2015) cites a study by Andrey Savtchenko et al. (NASA) indicating
“that El Niño contributes only six percent to California’s precipitation variability and is one factor among other, more random effects that influence how much rainfall the state receives. While it’s more likely El Niño increases precipitation in California, it’s still possible it will have no, or even a drying, effect.”
What a helpless science. Why? They have not investigated what they should have done a long time ago.
Since summer 1939 a strong El Niño was active off South America’s coast. Few weeks later there was war in Mongolia and Europe. California experienced an eight days heat wave, since about 16th September followed by a severe tropical storm New York Times, 25th September) and record rain. It was the heaviest September rain in Los Angeles’ weather history and it broke the worst heat wave in Weather Bureau records, as measured by intensity and duration. It lasted for eight days. (NYT, 26 September). While Western Europe experienced an extreme rainy autumn, the USA ‘fell dry’ after receiving only a small percentage of normal precipitation: in October 78%, in November 44% and in December 71%. According to US Weather Bureau the fall season was extremely dry over large areas. (NYT, 07 January.1940). [for more see page 34ff at: http://www.1ocean-1climate.com/book.pdf ]
If NASA experts would have paid more attention on the extremes mentioned and shown in the US maps for two months in 1939, they may have been able to offer better forecasts concerning El Niño and its impact elsewhere.
- (30. July 2015) http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/07/30/california-rain-debt-equal-to-average-full-year-of-precipitation/
- see page 34ff at: http://www.1ocean-1climate.com/book.pdf ]