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Arctic sea ice trend changes explained.

Two Wars, Two Arctic Shifts!

Post January 31, 2021, Added Feb.01, 2021, at the end ( link to article D’Aleo)

Arctic Sea ice is a big concern in the climate change debate. During the last 100 years three major shifts occurred. Less sea ice from 1918 to 1939; more sea ice formed from 1940 to about 1980, and retread again thereafter.  Meanwhile the ice situation in 1939/40 is close to the conditions today, as just published paper by Guillian Van Achter , assumes (see next image). While the latter point is important to recognize, the authors fail taking in account what happened in the last century, with the high probability that the two major shifts have been caused by two devastation naval wars.

Instead of looking for anthropogenic links authors merely relate the Arctic sea ice retreat and thinning to greenhouse gas emissions and natural variability. Their introduction put it as it follow:  

“On long timescales (a few decades or more), retreating and thinning are projected to continue as greenhouse gas emissions are expected to rise. However, on shorter timescales (1–20 years), internal climate variability, defined as the variability of the climate system that occurs in the absence of external forcing and caused by the system’s chaotic nature, limits the predictability of climate (Deser et al., 2014) and represents a major source of uncertainty for climate predictions (Deser et al., 2012). In this context, greater knowledge of Arctic SIT (sea ice thickness) internal variability and of its drivers is essential to document the true evolution of the Arctic atmosphere–ice–ocean system and to predict its future changes.”

To understand future changes, it seems foremost necessary to understand historical observations for which sufficient data and information are available as the G. Van Achter’s image shows (above). Required is to take the oceans into account. They are the main driver of climate, and the North Atlantic alone, and together with the Gulf Current, the main source of the Arctic sea ice conditions. How the three mentioned shifts did came about?

The story of World War I is simple. On the west coast of England, an arm of the Gulf Stream flows northwards to Svalbard and into the Arctic Ocean. A fierce naval war took place around the United Kingdom for 4 years, in the North Sea and also over the Gulf Stream. This messed up the “natural sea water structure” in terms of temperature and salinity and all these water masses ended up high up in the north. This caused a change in the water structure there. The mighty, cold, thick surface layer became thinner and so the warm Gulf Stream water could give off much more heat to the atmosphere. For two decades significant higher air temperature was observed in the Northern Hemisphere, ending suddenly with the beginning of World War II in September 1939.

The story of WWII is very different, but it is also not particularly complicated. In this case it is about the whole North Atlantic, north of the Straits of Gibraltar, the Strait of Florida and up to the North Cape. The sea area is several thousand meters deep and has a temperature of below 4 ° C. For more than six years there was fierce fighting in large parts. Whole sea areas were literally tumbled over many dozen meters deep, several thousand ships were sunk. There were huge explosions above, on and below sea level. This resulted in huge ‘shifts’ in the water structure which took years to return to the old ‘equilibrium’. A large part of it circulated the central North Atlantic (clockwise, lasting around 4 years). A smaller moved to the Arctic Ocean , which caused more sea ice over two dozen years. The more known result was a marked global cooling from 1940 to around mid-1970, the only global cooling since the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA), around 1850.

Film-Clip, Naval warfare, ~3min.

The story on Arctic sea ice after the 1980s is by far the easiest to explain. The overall conditions in the North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean indicate that a seven decade long period was required “to heal the sea from the wound WWII had inflicted”. About 3 to 4 decades to turn the cooling and increased sea ice trend back to a warming trend. And 3 to 4 decades to reach the same level as it existed in the late 1930s. In so far it is to note, that the lowest point was about 2012, but the sea ice is today back to the extent in 2005, in other word, the situation has stabilized during the last decade.

Finally, a comment on the overall situation. After the LIA ended in the middle of the 19th century, the trend had to go towards less Arctic sea ice for a longer period of time. Aside from the fact that many factors for sea ice changes from human activities in the oceans and the Arctic have never been addressed, but two of the most distinctive and unique trend changes cannot be explained without the two world wars. Even if the contribution could only be in a lower percentage range (which is very unlikely), it is irresponsible not to worry about an explanation as quickly as possible. That is forcing by man and has nothing to do with a “chaotic nature” but with physic.                      Author: Dr. Arnd Bernaerts

Link to two books on Climate Change and Naval  War:

__Concerning WWI
__Concerning WWII

Added February 01, 2021

One can only wonder how even excellently trained and
experienced meteorologists like Joseph D’Aleo fail
to recognize the connection between the great naval wars
and the sea ice and temperature developments.

Jan 27, 2021, Joseph D’Aleo, at:

The Real Polar Temperature and Ice Story
Wall Street Journal is pushing junk science that will lead to bad policies.
The latest is one of the favorite fake scare – disappearing ice. “World’s Ice Is
Melting Faster Than Ever, Climate Scientists Say”
Here is Joseph D’Aleo  reply: at


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Humans and the cold period from 1940 to 1970

How humans generated the cold period
from 1940 to 1970 and still ignore this fact.

Post January 20th, 2021

Few years ago David W.J. Thompson at al. attempted to explain “A large discontinuity in the mid-twentieth century in observed global-mean surface temperature“, published in NATURE, [Vol.453, 29May2008]. Whereas they confirmed that the Earth warmed from 1910 to1940** the subsequent cooling is explained very superficially, namely by a “variety of physical factors, such as atmosphere–ocean interactions and anthropogenic emissions of sulphate aerosols” and of “uncorrected instrumental biases in the sea surface temperature record”. That the large discontinuity has a strong correlation with World War II is not even mentioned.

**) The period of warming was from 1918 until the start of winter 1939/40, was observed
across the Northern Hemisphere, and
is usually called the “Early Arctic Warming”.

 Immediately Bob Tisdale (2009) question the conclusion, due to obvious  similarities in the shifts of the SST , the cloud cover and the marine air temperature datasets,  but either ignoring human activities at sea in the 1940s as well. One dozen years earlier two papers discussed “Temperature taken during World War II” [in the Pacific; in the North-Atlantic], by showing that a huge variety of observation need to be analyzed before considering any ‘corrections’.  But as Tisdale wonders that Thomson et al pay not any attention to other datasets showing the discontinuity as well, he either is short in asking the question: What is the cause of the observed discontinuity in the 1940s.

Film-Clip naval warfare – ~3 min.

The convincing answer is presumably not very far away. Since September 1939 huge water masses were churned up-side-down. As many ten-thousand ships plugged the sea every day, and billion objects exploded in the sea and sunk to the bottom of the sea, over several dozen meters or fseveral thousand meters. Aerial bombs, torpedoes and depth charges proved particularly effective. The photos shown are self-explanatory.  One can only wonder that scientific interest in any human impact on climate by activities at sea does not exist.


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Met Office Clueless On War Time Ice Storm 1940.

  Not interested in recognizing the human contribution?

Post January 14, 2021

Frequently the story about the Ice Storm in January 1940 pops up in newspaper. Three year ago THE GUARDIAN runs the story on 26/01/2018: 1940 Ice Storm added to misery of war. January 1940 was coldest month on record for almost 50 years, freezing the river Thames. This year THE TIMES is earlier and published today (14/01/2021) a story about January 1940, titling it: Wartime ice storm turned UK into a strange frozen world.

When two respected newspapers rise with dramatic wording the attention of its readers, the matter must be a unique  meteorological event. It was definitely, as THE TIMES explains:

January 1940 was dreadfully cold. The Thames was frozen for several miles between Teddington and Sunbury, the sea froze along parts of the south coast, and the ports at Folkestone and Southampton froze solid. Then on January 27 something extraordinary happened in southern areas when it rained — the instant the rain hit anything solid it froze into a thick layer of ice.

But that happened 81 years ago (more information below), and the Met Office in the UK is still clueless, as is the entire climatology. How can that be? The claim every day that they understand what happens with the global climate in the future, but fail completely to reasoning  and explain why Europe in general (HERE), and Great Britain got an extraordinary cold January, and an Ice Storm, that went down as one of the most dramatic weather events in history. During the war data collection was in highest demand. But meteorology seems not able or willing to used them for a thorough investigation, which is particularly enjoying, because all the exceptional weather patterns in winter 1939/40 may have anthropogenic caused. Even if man only contributed a few percent, it would be completely unacceptable. Presumably contribute a lot if not all, to a winter weather that run amok. For an entire picture consult the website , for winter 1939/40 the Chapter c, section C1 to C9.

For a broader picture on January 1940 in the UK, here after the text from other sources are reproduced.

  1. The Guardian, January 26, 2018

January 1940 was the coldest month on record for almost 50 years, and would ultimately become the second coldest January of the 20th century. By the middle of the month, the river Thames in London had frozen over for the first time in six decades, while on the 21st, temperatures in mid-Wales plummeted to a record low of –23C. But the most serious event came towards the end of the month, when a clash of mild air from the south-west and cold air from the north-east produced very heavy snowfalls, including 1.2 metres (4 ft) of snow in Sheffield. In southern Britain, rain fell instead of snow, resulting in an even greater catastrophe, as trees, telegraph and power lines were all coated with a thick layer of ice – up to 0.3 metres in some places. This was too much to bear, and many branches and lines collapsed under the sheer weight of ice. To make matters worse, it then snowed, creating even more misery for people already bearing the burden of war. Known as the 1940 Ice Storm, this goes down as one of the most dramatic weather events in history.

  1. Wikipedia

In the United Kingdom, a snow and ice event occurred during January 26–31, 1940. As a warm front pushed into cold air, it led to an ice storm south of the Midlands, with some areas being covered in up to 300 millimetres (12 in) of glaze by the 31st, with totals still adding up for some areas into early February. Further north an extreme snow event had taken place, crippling cities that already had feet of snow cover. Sheffield had 4 feet (120 cm) of snow on the first day of the storm alone, with Bolton seeing 10 feet (300 cm) by the end of the storm. It is thought to be one of the most severe storms to hit the UK.[11]


January 1940. The coldest month of any kind since 1895 (-1.4C CET), and eventually he second coldest January of the century (after 1963). On the 17th, the Thames was frozen over for the first time since 1880. The morning of the 21st gave the lowest temperature of the month: -23C was recorded at Rhayader (Wales), with many places continuously well beneath freezing (e.g. only -4C maximum at Boscombe Down, Wilts.). There were heavy snowfalls in Scotland, with many places cut off. Most remarkably, there was a great snow and Ice Storm during the 27-30th, peaking on the 28th, but continuing in parts into February. Mild air approaching behind

warm fronts from the SW met the cold easterly all the way from Russia. There was heavy snow over the north; four feet of snow in Sheffield on the 26th, and 10′ drifts reported in Bolton on the 29th. Further south the lower air was warming up and was too warm for snow, but the rain froze as it fell, coating everything with a thick layer of glaze. The effects of the freezing rain was one of the most extreme weather events of the century. The south was particularly badly affected. Everything was coated in a thick layer of ice: phone wires 1.5 mm thick were coated with a 300mm diameter sheath of ice – up to 15 times their weight. Many large tree trunks and power lines were brought down. The area affected by the glaze reached from Kent to Exmoor and the Cotswolds, and from Sussex to Cambridgeshire and the north Midlands. It was a week before all the ice thawed; some places had snow on top of the glaze, with both remaining until the 4th February. Heavy snow and a violent gale swept the southwest.


The UK Ice Storm in January1940 is well documented. It occurred in the fifth months since the Second World War commenced. The probability is high that warfare on land, at sea and in the air contributed significantly to the extreme cold winter condition in Europe. For decades climatology claims being able to tell us how climate is likely to work in the future, which is hardly convincing, if modern meteorology is unwilling or unable to explain an extraordinary event, as the Ice Storm eight decades ago. After all, climate change research is need foremost to understand what humans are causing or may contribute. The winter 1939/40 is an excellent field for research to make progress in this respect.

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How do people make an ice age winter?

Wage war like Hitler did in the winter of 1939/40

Post January 10, 2021

Suddenly, in January 1940, there were many cold records never measured before. The 1930s had been a very warm decade. Usually average January winter temperatures in Western Europe are above zero degrees Celsius. Not so eight decades ago. A dramatic drop stopped the warm winters in Europe.  The situation turned to winters observed before the end of the Little Ice Age (~1850). For example: the coldest winter (November to March) since 1828 in Dresden and Berlin. All-time low ever observed and recorded, in Poland (-41°C), in Moscow (-41,2°C) and Wales (23.3°C).  That came completely unexpected. What a drama. Not for climate science, which has not been interested in this sudden climatic shift until today? Does that indicate a lack of competence?

Few years ago several thousands climate experts from around the world arrived for a conference on climate change, hoping to find a way to improve the implementation of the Paris Agreement on climate change (adopted in December 2015). In Katowice, Poland, December 2018,  the Parties aimed to finalize a detailed set of rules and guidelines to  enable the Paris Agreement to be put into practice. Particular the monetary aspect, namely the promise to raise $100 billion a year, from both public and private sources, by 2020 to help developing countries to address climate change. The sum is mind-boggling, and the complete ignorance to simple historical events – for example the arctic winter in Europe 1939/40 – is shocking and dangerous.

The Second World War (WWII) was only 100 days old when weather in Europe started to run amok. It is easy to compile several dozen ‘unexpected and unusual’ events indicating that the weather started to leave common standards since December 1939. What happened as early as at Christmas Eve in Finland was alread horro pure (see a previous post HERE), as the climatic drama first culminated in January 1940, but continued well until mid-February, which is thoroughly discussed in numerous book chapter, online  HERE & HERE.

One of the climatic high-lights of the winter 1939/40 had been a number of all-time cold records at many location in the Baltic Sea region, for example in Hamburg, on 12. February 1940. A month earlier Poland reached to an all time low, which brings us back to the current gathering in Katowice. In 277 km distance in NNE  and about  50km west of Warsaw is the village Siedlce. Already on the 11th of January 1940 the thermometer dropped to the incredible level of minus 41°C.  At that time the Baltic Sea was still not covered with sea ice, which only happened in early March 1940, and for the first time in the 20th Century.  How that could happen so suddenly, after the year 1939 had been within the normal temperature range, actually there had been a lasting warming since 1918, and the late 1930s had been the highest ever recorded.

Under such circumstances it is highly ignorant and gross negligent to talk about climate change in Katowice, although human activities may have caused it, or highly contributed to record cold temperatures in January and February 1940. The ignorance is particularly annoying, as the mechanism which lead to the rampage of climate can be easily attributed to the warmonger Adolf Hitler, who started WWII and this initiated that huge naval force crisscrossed the sea, and churned and turned the sea up-side-down by shelling, mining, torpedoing, and bombing. The immediate consequences are easily explained by a daily exercise:

Too warm water is the baby-tube in cooled down by churning the water with the hand around. The North and Baltic Sea are like the baby-tube, warned during the summer season. If forcefully churned in autumn and earkly winter, any stored heat diminishes quickly, opening the way for cold air in anti-cyclones (high-pressure) to move westwards up the shores of the North-Atlantic, denying low pressure cyclones to travel straight eastwards, directing them either to the Barents Sea or South to the Mediterranean Sea.

 That happened evidently in winter 1939/40. And what is climatology doing? They ignore it, although it would turn the whole climate change debate in a complete different direction. Evidence would be on the table that man is able to a moderate winter scenario into a disaster within a few months. One mad-man as Adolf Hitler is enough to cause the coldest winter in Europe over more than a century. The Katowice climate summit brought  together around 30 000 delegates from almost 200 countries, top state officials, representatives of business and NGOs among them, but without the competence and interest to answer a fairly simple question: What cause the sudden climatic change in winter 1939/40? Which atmospheric condition caused the all-time cold record in the village Siedlce on 11th January 1940 and several other locations? An all-time record in Hamburg one month later?. What caused the full ice-cover of the Baltic Sea after more than 40 years?

Today, the 9th January 2021, eight decades later, the situation is very different, from which much could be learned, if there would be only more interest, willingness und competence. Since September 1939 until early 1940 not one single ‘natural event’ occurred! Carbon dioxide (CO2) was totally out of question. There was nothing, absolute anything that could have caused a climate change, but war on land, war at sea and war in the air.

For the full story consult Chapter C, section 1 to 9 (about 61 pages) at:

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Is man the source of the Early Arctic Warming?

Humans changed climate – 100 years ago –
Which is still ignored by Science!

Post January 02, 2021

 A sudden warming was felt all over the Northern Hemisphere. Today it is called Early Arctic Warming (EAW) and started after a very cold European winter 1916/17 in 1918. Naval warfare in Western Europe was at its highest in 1916 and 1917. Several thousand ships, war ships and submarines were sunk. All water masses churned by the navies flow north towards the Arctic.  In 1918 air temperature increased in the Northern North-Atlantic dramatically. It should be regarded as a clear sign, how humans can influence and change climate!

Washington Post reported on 2 November 1922 based on information by the American consul in Norway to the U.S. State Department in October 1922 and published in the Monthly Weather Review  with the sensational hint that in 1918 a strong warming began (see Fig above left). In August, 1922, the Norwegian Department of Commerce sent an expedition to Spitzbergen and Bear Island under the leadership of Dr. Adolf Hoel, lecturer on geology at the University of Christiania. Its purpose was to survey and chart the lands adjacent to the Norwegian sea mines, laid during First World War (WWI) on those islands, take soundings of the adjacent waters, and make other oceanographic investigations.

Ice conditions were exceptional. In fact, so little ice has never before been noted. The expedition all but established a record, sailing as far north as 81° 29′ in ice-free water. This is the farthest north ever reached with modern oceanographic apparatus.

The character of the waters of the great polar basin has heretofore been practically unknown. Dr. Hoel reports that he made a section of the Gulf Stream at 81° north latitude and took soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters. These show the Gulf Stream very warm, and it could be traced as a surface current till beyond the 81st parallel. The warmth of the waters makes it probable that the favorable ice conditions will continue for some time.

In connection with Dr. Hoel’s report, it is of interest to note the unusually warm summer in Arctic Norway and the observations of Capt. Martin Ingebrigsten, who has sailed the eastern Arctic for 54 years past. He says that he first noted warmer conditions in 1918, that since that time it has steadily gotten warmer, and that to-day the Arctic of that region is not recognizable as the same region of 1868 to 1917.  Back in 2003 Willis Eschenbach did a closer examination of Vardø (see the Vardø –above) and also found the same discontinuity around 1920, amounting to 0.73°C.  When that artificial discontinuity is discounted, the temperature rise is only +0.12°C per century, a tiny result for a region that according to the models should have undergone rampant warming in the last century. The text was published in October 2003 (see left) at , in Willis Eschenbach’s eyes the late John Daly was an early giant in the climate blogger sphere.

A detailed analysis is available in the Book, 2009, “ARCTIC HEATS UP – Spitsbergen 1919-1939”, p. 60ff; (online: of which an excerpt is given as it follows:


Spitsbergen as a Heating Spot

If one asks whether the heating-up spot is to be found at Spitsbergen, we would answer: yes. The information supplied sustains this affirmative answer. Nothing demonstrates this better than the data record taken at Spitsbergen since 1912. If one reviews the January/February temperature difference between the winters of 1913/14 and of 1919/20 (ca. + 15oC), or from the winters of 1916-1917 to the winters of 1919-1920 (ca. + 22oC), the results are not only extraordinary, but they reveal that the “shift” took place in 1918, respectively in the winter of 1918/19 (Hesselberg, 1956). This is emphasized by the comparison between the data recorded from 1912, until WWI ended in November 1918 (ca. – 4.3oC), and thereafter (ca. +3.8oC), including the winter of 1925/26

In the summer of 1918 the seawater temperatures had already reached unusual values: +7oC to +8oC at the West coast of Spitsbergen (Weikmann, 1942). During the winter of 1918/19 the temperatures varied considerably. There were long periods in November and December 1918 with temperatures close to zero degrees, 4 days with temperatures above zero in November and 7 days in December[38]. In January 1919, the temperatures did not reach -5oC for 14 days, and five days were frost-free. The annual mean (1912-1926) with a minus 7.7oC suddenly jumped to an annual average of minus 5.4oC in 1919, representing a plus of 2.3 degree. The corresponding figures provide for January 1919 a difference + 8.6oC, which indicates that the sea was able to transfer a lot of heat into the air. However, during February-April 1919, the temperatures were well below the average (ca. -6oC), with a large ice-cover far out into the sea. But that did not affect the significant warming that had started a few months earlier and lasted until the outbreak of WWII in September 1939. The dramatic temperature rise in the 1920th and 1930th is shown in several of the Fig. attached.


100 years ago the sea water temperatures at Spitsbergen suddenly reached unusual high values. After winter 1918/19 the warmth affected the entire Northern Hemisphere. In the USA it warming lasted until about 1933, elsewhere to winter 1939/40. The connection to the naval war activities in the North Sea and Eastern North Atlantic is obvious. Some six-thousand ships were sunk. Many millions explosions at the sea surface and many dozen meter below the surface shock the sea and churned it around, mixing the temperature and salinity structure thoroughly. More than 100 years have passed, and science knows nothing about the issue, neither shows any interest to know how much man has contributed to the climatic change for two decades. The EAW persisted over the next two decades and lasted exactly to the moment World War II commenced.