‘Natural variability’, is scientific nonsense

The most popular climate rule, ‘natural climate variability’, is utter nonsense.

 In a recent post about global warming or climate change, Roy Spencer assumes that “we will not have much more scientific confidence ten years from now”. The problem is obvious when he wonders:  “How much of recent warming has been natural?” He is not alone.

Source: Roy W. Spencer, Ph.D., March 24th, 2017

The climatologist likes to use the term ‘natural climate variability’, which is said to arise from two different sources: (1) internal variability from interactions among components of the climate system, for example, between the ocean and the atmosphere, and (2) natural external forcing, such as variations in the amount of radiation from the Sun. (Details: judithcurry.com/2016/08/08/). That is a complete irrelevant approach.

 The global weather system is working according to the law of physics. The major components are water and heat. ‘Natural climate variability’, is screaming nonsense. In our previous post (HERE) we site C.F. Brooks (1918): At all times, the diverse temperatures of water, land, and snow surfaces control weather details, which, when long continued, become large features “. The sentence is clear and leaves no room for ‘natural variability’.

 The fact that the system is highly complex does not allow talking nonsense. Actually the inability to reasonable assessing and modeling the system is due to the largeness of the ocean water. With regard to the global heat system the ratio is roughly 1:1000, which means – very generally speaking – ocean observing may require a system that is one thousand-times larger than that currently used for observing the atmosphere. But instead of using a meaningless and misleading term “natural variability”, it is better to admit shortcomings, respectively to explain: ‘oceans-govern-climate’, and that more understanding and care for the oceans may minimize anthropogenic climate changes by improper ocean uses.

Roy Spencer: “The Global Warming Debate Spectrum”, March 24th, 2017 

Judith Curry: “Decadal Climate Variability” 

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