El Niño – To be, or not to be

Weather will get interesting over the next months. Speculations are high. A rapidly strengthening El Niño event
will likely peak later this fall as one of the strongest El Niño event ever observed (24/09). 

23 September 2015 - Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly
23 September 2015
– Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly

There is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016 (NOAA). What does this mean for the upcoming winter season? That is the big question!

For Europe the risk of a colder is currently considered small, predicted UK-MetOffice recently. The GUARDIAN offers more options;

10 September: El Niño expected to hit US hard, but not enough to ease California drought. Climate officials warn winter’s weather pattern likely to be one of the strongest as effects are likely to be felt from December to March
17 September : The world has experienced record-breaking warmth every month so far this year, and Noaa scientists say global warming and El Niño are the cause
21 September: El Niño: a global weather event that may save California — and destroy the tropics.

The SST-Anomaly map indicates to two further areas of interest, with too warm SST in the Eastern North Pacific , and too cold SST in the North Atlantic. What is at stake? How will the winter 2015/16 be in North America, in Europe, and Siberia?

24/09: http://www.theweathernetwork.com/us/news/articles/us-weather/winter-preview-el-nino-contributes-to-a-tale-of-two-seasons/56531/
NOAA: : http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html
UK-MetOffice: http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/05/14/el-nino-and-its-impact-on-global-weather/
10/Sept: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/sep/10/el-nino-weather-pattern-strong-california-drought
17. September : http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/sep/17/2015-hottest-year-on-record-noaa
21. September: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/sep/21/el-nino-weather-save-california-destroy-tropics

Image source: http://www.dmi.dk/en/hav/satellitmaalinger/havtemperatur/

Author: admin

37 thoughts on “El Niño – To be, or not to be

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  29. There are so many alarmists and people scared by El Nino, but in fact they don’t really understand the phenomenon. Great post!

  30. Expect a great performance of the weather expert. The International Business Times reports (15 September ) :

    Meteorologists have predicted that Britain will face its worst winter in over 50 years
    as a result of El Niño. The country is expected to be hit by a cold wave as early as October,
    cutting down autumn to just a month.
    Experts even fear a repeat of 1963, the worst winter in history, when temperatures plunged
    to near -20C in January causing the sea to freeze off the Kent coast. Snow blanketed much
    of England for weeks while the River Thames froze.

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