The current 2015–16 El Niño is one of the three strongest ever recorded. For a number of months El Niño is blamed for unusual weather, which is widely acknowledged that certain effects can be linked to a strong El Niño. While the event causes weather ‘moderation’, its impact on global warming does not. A plain calculation suggests: negative.
A warmer than average water pool along the Equator must have an effect on air circulation. As soon as the usual trade-wind ceases the entire global air circulation changes. When the trade-wind cease, global air circulation adapt to the change. Unusual weather is inevitable, and different temperature levels may follow temporarily. But a general warming is most unlikely.
Attached are two graphs indicating the dimension of current El Niño. By rough calculation the warm water-pool is about 5’000 km long (West-East), 2’000 km wide (North-South), and 0,1 km deep, covering an area of 10 Million square-km, or a volume of 1 Million cubic-km. If one puts this numbers into a global perspective, namely an ocean area of 361 Million sqkm, respectively ocean volume of 1285 Million cubkm a correlation can be explained only by faith. The minimal higher temperature of the pool (<2,5°Celsius), may alter temporarily some atmospheric conditions, but is barely sufficient to warm the entire climate system. Not only El Niño releases heat to the atmosphere, but so does every square-meter of the oceans. OCEANS GOVERN CLIMATE
Links: 2015–16 El Niño