California Drought and El Niño

Anthony Watts’ recent post (30. July 2015) cites a study by Andrey Savtchenko et al. (NASA) indicating 5

“that El Niño contributes only six percent to California’s precipitation variability and is one factor among other, more random effects that influence how much rainfall the state receives. While it’s more likely El Niño increases precipitation in California, it’s still possible it will have no, or even a drying, effect.

What a helpless science. Why? They have not investigated what they should have done a long time ago.

Since summer 1939 a strong El Niño was active off South America’s coast. Few weeks later there was war in Mongolia and 6Europe. California experienced an eight days heat wave, since about 16th September followed by a severe tropical storm New York Times, 25th September) and record rain. It was the heaviest September rain in Los Angeles’ weather history and it broke the worst heat wave in Weather Bureau records, as measured by intensity and duration. It lasted for eight days. (NYT, 26 September). While Western Europe experienced an extreme rainy autumn, the USA ‘fell dry’ after receiving only a small percentage of normal precipitation: in October 78%, in November 44% and in December 71%. According to US Weather Bureau the fall season was extremely dry over large areas. (NYT, 07 January.1940). [for more see page 34ff at: http://www.1ocean-1climate.com/book.pdf ]

If NASA experts would have paid more attention on the extremes mentioned and shown in the US maps for two months in 1939, they may have been able to offer better forecasts concerning El Niño and its impact elsewhere.

 

 

Author: admin

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  49. “We’re predicting that this El Niño could be among the strongest in the historical record dating back to 1950,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction on Thursday 13. August 2015, which fueled enthusiasm? Read more at: http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/El-Ni-o-getting-bigger-and-bigger-6442359.php

    Observing a strong El Niño emerging is simplest observation. But we will see whether predicting it as the strongest since 1950 is currently mere yackely-yak. Ignoring El Niño events in the 1940 and earlier indicates that this kind of competence is not very high.
    Concerning California, Halpert was quick to caution that the event holds no guarantee of above-average rain and snow for California. Time that he understands what happen in 1939/40 and the early 1940s.

  50. Interesting subject, indeed! I’m sure that if scientist will look back in the past they will find the reason for some present phenomenons or climatic extremes. I’m sure, for example, that the wars, especially the two World Wars had an important impact over climate change.

  51. El Nino was probably strong in summer 1939:
    Schweigger, E.H., 1940.
    “Studies of the Peru Coastal Current with Reference to the Extraordinary Summer of 1939.” Proceedings of the Sixth Pacific Science Congress 3: p. 177-195.

  52. Interesting subject, reported in detail at:
    http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/enso/tropstorm.nws

    …SEPTEMBER 1939…
    FOUR STORMS IMPACTED SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THAT MONTH. THE REMNANTS
    OF A HURRICANE TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA
    CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA GENERATING RAINFALL OF UP TO 7
    INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN DESERTS
    OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THE 4TH THROUGH 7TH WITH THE HEAVIEST
    RAIN ON THE 5TH AND 6TH. BLYTHE RECEIVED MORE RAIN THAN WOULD
    NORMALLY FALL IN ONE YEAR AND IMPERIAL RECEIVED MORE RAIN THAN
    WOULD NORMALLY FALL IN TWO YEARS.

    THE REMNANTS OF A SECOND TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
    ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. MOISTURE
    FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE
    NORTH GENERATING RAINFALL OF UP TO 4 INCHES IN THE DESERTS AND
    CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THE 11TH
    AND 12TH.

    A TROPICAL CYLONE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD…JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF
    MEXICO…MOVED INTO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND DISSIPATED. THE
    MOISTURE FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE GENERATED RAINFALL OF UP TO 3
    INCHES IN THE DESERTS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
    SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THE 19TH THROUGH 21ST.

    NEAR THE END OF THE MONTH…A TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING TO THE
    NORTHEAST MOVED ONSHORE AT LONG BEACH AT TROPICAL STORM STORM
    STRENGTH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH. THIS IS THE ONLY KNOWN
    EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE ONSHORE INTO SOUTHERN
    CALIFORNIA AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. RAINFALL OF 5 INCHES IN THE
    LOS ANGELES BASIN AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS
    OCCURRED ON THE 25TH. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN THE DESERTS OCCURRED THE
    DAY BEFORE WITH 6.45 INCHES OF RAIN AT INDIO IN A 6-HOUR PERIOD ON
    THE 24TH.

    ALL THESE STORMS OCCURRED DURING THE EL NINO OF 1938-39.

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