Claiming “natural variability” indicates: Not understood!
posted January 15, 2017; Comment open
Talking about “natural variability” is a sign that the research issue is not understood. But climate science loves the term. So do Chantal Camenisch and her 32 colleagues in their recent paper (A) concerning a climate reconstruction from a multitude of natural and anthropogenic archives, which indicates that the 1430s were the coldest decade in north-western and central Europe in the 15th century.
Interesting is their conclusion that neither volcanic eruptions nor a reduction in solar forcing on temperature seasonality can explain these winters in the 1430s, although attached images indicate that air temperatures and precipitation may have been strongly influenced by the Eastern Atlantic from Spain to Ireland and the North and Baltic Sea.
Instead of admitting that they are unable to identify the cause, they say: “The climate models showed instead that these conditions were due to natural variations in the climate system, a combination of natural factors that occurred by chance and meant Europe had very cold winters and normal to warm summers”.
Instead of admitting that they have not yet grasped that oceans-govern-climate, they claim “natural variability” ignoring that weather (and climate) work according physical laws. Worst, by not even saying what that term means. Do they think that “Natural climate variability, as the name suggests, is caused by natural factors.”? (see: know.climateofconcern.org) What nonsense! Applying the law of physics in the weather-world might be often difficult due to complexity and lack of data, but using instead ‘natural variability” is unacceptable and strongly misleading.
- Chantal Camenisch et al: The 1430s: a cold period of extraordinary internal climate variability during the early Spörer minimum with social and economic impacts in north-western and central Europe; Past, 12, 2107–2126, 2016, www.clim-past.net/12/2107/2016/; doi:10.5194/cp-12-2107-2016; FULL text in PDF (p.20): http://www.clim-past.net/12/2107/2016/cp-12-2107-2016.pdf
- Sea also previous post December 03, 2017: