Global Heat Account – Not without Shipping etc
Ships push more heat into than out of the ocean –
A major source of global warming since industrialization.
Post by Dr. Arnd Bernaerts, 10th March 2018
In a world which is getting steadily warmer it sound a good question to ask for the main source for the incremental rise in temperatures on earth. The excellent blog of Judith Curry did it (2018/03/09), while Willis Eschenbach picked up the subject at WUWT. It is worth to read both post,
Prof. Curry’s starting point is a reference to the IPCC AR5 (Report 2013) which concluded that:
“It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by [humans]. The best estimate of the human induced contribution is similar to the observed warming over this period.”
It is little Prof. Curry offers herself to contribute on her question where the heat is coming from. Neither does Willies Eschenbach who stress that nobody knows much about the up-and-down since the Romans, but that “ … none of those gradual temperature changes were caused by variations in CO2”. Subsequently he mentions that the sun is the source of all heat, but stress univocal:
“Now, does this show that the sun is indeed the cause of the gradual warming? ABSOLUTELY NOT. There are plenty of forces at play in even this restricted subset of climate variables, and the fact that a couple of them line up does NOT mean that one is causing the other.”
What Willis Eschenbach wants to say is simply: I do not know. Nobody knows. That sounds fair but is nevertheless unacceptable. Anyone who is aware that the earth is a water planet and water is as much essential for the weather (and climate) as the heat from the sun; and is aware of the size of the ocean with a ration to the atmosphere of 1000:1; and is aware that the mean ocean temperature is as low as about 4°C, would not exclude the ocean from any research and accounting of global heat and of global cooling.
A thorough assessment of shipping since using screw driven vessels, and other human activities at sea, would inevitable show that this contributed to global warming since the end of the LIA considerably. The tonnage has increase in 90 years by 2600% (Fig.5). A much more profound demonstration of man-made climate changes by maritime activities offer the two World Wars; the First (1914-18) by a influencing the Ocean around Svalbard, causing a warming from 1918 to 1940 , and during the Second WW (1939 -1945) revolving so much cold water to the sea surface that the world cooled for three decades. (see Fig. 1, 3 & 6) For details see: http://www.seaclimate.com/ and http://www.2030climate.com/
Again, Curry and Eschenbach are both excellent writers, serious and committed, but seem unable to raise the item which matters most in weather (and climate): the oceans. As Willis Eschenbach has extensive seagoing experience and regards himself as “…. a long-time ocean devotee.” , he could do more concerning the ocean-climate issue.