California Drought and El Niño

Anthony Watts’ recent post (30. July 2015) cites a study by Andrey Savtchenko et al. (NASA) indicating 5

“that El Niño contributes only six percent to California’s precipitation variability and is one factor among other, more random effects that influence how much rainfall the state receives. While it’s more likely El Niño increases precipitation in California, it’s still possible it will have no, or even a drying, effect.

What a helpless science. Why? They have not investigated what they should have done a long time ago.

Since summer 1939 a strong El Niño was active off South America’s coast. Few weeks later there was war in Mongolia and 6Europe. California experienced an eight days heat wave, since about 16th September followed by a severe tropical storm New York Times, 25th September) and record rain. It was the heaviest September rain in Los Angeles’ weather history and it broke the worst heat wave in Weather Bureau records, as measured by intensity and duration. It lasted for eight days. (NYT, 26 September). While Western Europe experienced an extreme rainy autumn, the USA ‘fell dry’ after receiving only a small percentage of normal precipitation: in October 78%, in November 44% and in December 71%. According to US Weather Bureau the fall season was extremely dry over large areas. (NYT, 07 January.1940). [for more see page 34ff at: http://www.1ocean-1climate.com/book.pdf ]

If NASA experts would have paid more attention on the extremes mentioned and shown in the US maps for two months in 1939, they may have been able to offer better forecasts concerning El Niño and its impact elsewhere.

 

 

61 comments to California Drought and El Niño

  • Bernie Hubbard  says:

    Good article, thanks.

  • Royal Sebeniecher  says:

    Great post. Thanks for the read.

  • beli ps4  says:

    Hiya, I am really glad I have found this information. Nowadays bloggers publish only about gossip and internet stuff and this is really frustrating. A good blog with exciting content, this is what I need. Thanks for making this web site, and I will be visiting again. Do you do newsletters by email?

  • Fidel Powsey  says:

    I dugg some of you post as I cogitated they were very beneficial very beneficial

  • Faustino Holl  says:

    Good – I should certainly pronounce, impressed with your web site. I had no trouble navigating through all the tabs as well as related info ended up being truly easy to do to access. I recently found what I hoped for before you know it in the least. Reasonably unusual. Is likely to appreciate it for those who add forums or anything, site theme . a tones way for your client to communicate. Nice task.

  • Louetta Leto  says:

    you’re in reality a good webmaster. The website loading speed is incredible. It sort of feels that you are doing any unique trick. Moreover, The contents are masterpiece. you have done a great activity in this topic!

  • keris kuno  says:

    Hello there. I found your blog by way of Google while looking for a comparable matter, your website came up. It seems to be great. I’ve bookmarked it in my google bookmarks to visit then.

  • Yessenia Joline  says:

    obviously like your website but you need to test the spelling on quite a few of your posts. Several of them are rife with spelling problems and I find it very bothersome to inform the reality then again I will definitely come again again.

  • google  says:

    Hello there. I discovered your web site by the use of Google at the same time as searching for a comparable topic, your web site got here up. It appears to be great. I have bookmarked it in my google bookmarks to come back then.

  • Ivette Gutterman  says:

    hi!,I like your writing so much! share we be in contact extra approximately your post on AOL? I require a specialist in this space to resolve my problem. May be that is you! Taking a look forward to peer you.

  • rezerwuj hotele  says:

    Greetings! This is my formerly holiday at to your blog! We are a collection of volunteers and preparatory a pristine assignment in a community in the similar forte. Your blog provided us beneficial in rank to work taking place. You have completed a fantastic job!

  • Denis Serrao  says:

    You could definitely see your expertise within the paintings you write. The arena hopes for more passionate writers such as you who are not afraid to mention how they believe. Always go after your heart. “Billy Almon has all of his inlaw and outlaws here this afternoon.” by Jerry Coleman.

  • : Poudre naturelle |physiotherapie : Extrait de Gingembre pour votre sante  says:

    Hello thank for this information, I will come the article for retrieving an braimstron or an fascinating information. Good information, express gratitude for sharing. Michel

  • Aurelia Gerace  says:

    I do consider all the concepts you’ve offered to your post. They’re very convincing and can certainly work. Still, the posts are too quick for novices. May just you please extend them a little from subsequent time? Thank you for the post.

  • Robert Farwell edward jones  says:

    Ive been exploring for a little bit for any high-quality articles or weblog posts in this kind of area . Exploring in Yahoo I finally stumbled upon this site. Studying this info So i am happy to express that Ive a very excellent uncanny feeling I found out exactly what I needed. I such a lot no doubt will make certain to do not disregard this site and provides it a glance on a relentless basis.

  • Nova Merchant Services  says:

    Hi! I simply wish to give you a big thumbs up for your excellent info you’ve got right here on this post. I am returning to your blog for more soon.

  • The Center for Association Resources  says:

    Thank you for this, I was about to give up on my search when I came across this information. The other guides I found weren’t nearly as helpful as yours.

  • Moises Baatz  says:

    you’re in point of fact a excellent webmaster. The web site loading velocity is amazing. It seems that you’re doing any unique trick. Also, The contents are masterwork. you’ve performed a fantastic task in this topic!

  • spa ciechocinek  says:

    Im thumbs down pro, except I ponder you immediately ended the greatest position. You evidently completely appreciate what youre speaking about, and I can beyond doubt get at the back of that. Recognition for being accordingly frank and accordingly genuine.

  • extreme bukkake  says:

    Very informative post.Much thanks again. Keep writing.

  • natural clear vision manual pdf  says:

    I like what you guys are up too. Such smart work and reporting! Keep up the superb works guys I have incorporated you guys to my blogroll. I think it’ll improve the value of my web site 🙂

  • my site  says:

    I simply want to say I am newbie to blogging and certainly liked you’re web site. Almost certainly I’m planning to bookmark your website . You absolutely come with outstanding articles and reviews. Cheers for revealing your web site.

  • natural clear vision manual download  says:

    Veryy good blog post. I definitely love this website. Keep it
    up!

    My page – naturalclearvisionreviewx.blogspot.com

  • sdorttuiiplmnr  says:

    Hi, i believe that i noticed you visited my site so i came to “return the prefer”.I’m attempting to find issues to enhance my site!I assume its adequate to use a few of your ideas!!

  • aplikasi hack facebook work 2014  says:

    I have got read great blog sites and even gone through some,but your work is really extraordinary.Hats off to all your commitment and trustworthiness.Do continue us prepared at a later date too.

  • Michael Kors Handbags  says:

    It抯 hard to search out knowledgeable folks on this matter, however you sound like you know what you抮e talking about! Thanks

  • sdorttuiiplmnr  says:

    Great line up. We will be linking to this great article on our site. Keep up the good writing.

  • 魔兽欧服代练  says:

    我经常在www.pls173.com网站买魔兽世界欧服代练,服务态度好,代练基本上是立即就开始了,金币发货快,秒发。下次买嗨来这里。

  • hack facebook account online free and fast  says:

    I have taken a look at many blog pages together with read and studied many websites,however your job is simply impressive.Caps off towards your commitment . and loyalty.Do retain us all advised in future too.

  • Google  says:

    Google

    The information talked about in the write-up are a few of the top out there.

  • blog  says:

    That is really attention-grabbing, You are an excessively skilled blogger.

    I have joined your feed and stay up for in search of extra of your
    fantastic post. Additionally, I have shared your site in my social networks

  • Lois Beninato  says:

    Very good blog post.Thanks for making this particular insightful blog post and informative all of us with all your views.I really hope you are going to persist this specific good work at a later date as well.

  • Michael Kors Purses  says:

    Nice post. I be taught one thing tougher on completely different blogs everyday. It will always be stimulating to learn content from other writers and practice a bit something from their store. I抎 favor to use some with the content material on my weblog whether or not you don抰 mind. Natually I抣l give you a hyperlink in your web blog. Thanks for sharing.

  • sdorttuiiplmnr  says:

    I think this is among the most significant info for me. And i’m glad reading your article. But should remark on few general things, The web site style is perfect, the articles is really nice : D. Good job, cheers

  • Francesco Henslin  says:

    Valuable information. Lucky me I found your website by accident, and I’m shocked why this accident did not happened earlier! I bookmarked it.

  • fiverr backlinks  says:

    Great, thanks for sharing this blog article.Much thanks again. Want more.

  • Google  says:

    Google

    Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine a couple of unrelated data, nonetheless actually worth taking a look, whoa did 1 master about Mid East has got more problerms also.

  • scrapebox fresh list 2015 november  says:

    you are in reality a good webmaster. The web site loading velocity is amazing. It sort of feels that you are doing any unique trick. Also, The contents are masterpiece. you’ve done a great process on this matter!

  • Google  says:

    Google

    Just beneath, are numerous absolutely not associated web-sites to ours, on the other hand, they’re surely really worth going over.

  • important link  says:

    I simply want to tell you that I am very new to blogs and certainly enjoyed your web site. Probably I’m likely to bookmark your site . You certainly have fabulous articles. Thank you for sharing with us your blog.

  • Google  says:

    Google

    One of our visitors not too long ago proposed the following website.

  • Ariel  says:

    This actually answered my problem, thanks!

  • crorkservice seo  says:

    aJ92gt Really appreciate you sharing this blog post.Really looking forward to read more. Fantastic.

  • sdorttuii plmnr  says:

    Some truly nice and useful information on this website, as well I think the design has got wonderful features.

  • Germaine  says:

    Hi there! I’m at work browsing your blog from my new iphone 4! Just wanted to say I love reading your blog and look forward to all your posts! Carry on the excellent work!

  • sdorttuii plmnr  says:

    Sweet blog! I found it while browsing on Yahoo News. Do you have any tips on how to get listed in Yahoo News? I’ve been trying for a while but I never seem to get there! Appreciate it

  • Gordon  says:

    I’m frequently to blogging and i truly appreciate your content material. The article has really peaks my interest. I am going to bookmark your internet site and maintain checking for new information.

  • why not find out more  says:

    I just want to tell you that I am all new to blogging and site-building and certainly savored your web page. Most likely I’m likely to bookmark your site . You definitely have remarkable posts. With thanks for sharing your blog site.

  • Son  says:

    Great – I should definitely pronounce, impressed with your web site. I had no trouble navigating through all tabs and related information ended up being truly simple to do to access. I recently found what I hoped for before you know it at all. Quite unusual. Is likely to appreciate it for those who add forums or anything, site theme . a tones way for your customer to communicate. Nice task..

  • Nyla  says:

    Hi, i read your blog occasionally and i own a similar one and i was just wondering if you get a lot of spam comments? If so how do you prevent it, any plugin or anything you can suggest? I get so much lately it’s driving me mad so any support is very much appreciated.

  • Patsy  says:

    Howdy! This is my first visit to your blog! We are a team of volunteers and starting a new initiative in a community in the same niche. Your blog provided us useful information to work on. You have done a outstanding job!

  • sdorttuiiplmnr  says:

    I have been browsing online more than 3 hours today, yet I never found any interesting article like yours. It’s pretty worth enough for me. Personally, if all web owners and bloggers made good content as you did, the internet will be a lot more useful than ever before.

  • Jarrett  says:

    I’m so happy to read this. This is the kind of manual that needs to be given and not the random misinformation that’s at the other blogs. Appreciate your sharing this best doc.

  • sdorttuiiplmnr  says:

    Keep up the wonderful work, I read few blog posts on this web site and I conceive that your blog is really interesting and holds circles of excellent info .

  • Free Piano  says:

    Free Piano

    You made some decent points there. I regarded on the internet for the difficulty and located most people will go together with together with your website….

  • buy wow accounts  says:

    After study a few of the blog posts on your website now, and I truly like your way of blogging. I bookmarked it to my bookmark website list and will be checking back soon. Pls check out my web site as well and let me know what you think.

  • Johnette Garmoe  says:

    Nice post. I learn something more challenging on different blogs everyday. It will always be stimulating to read content from other writers and practice a little something from their store. I’d prefer to use some with the content on my blog whether you don’t mind. Naturally I’ll give you a link on your web blog. Thanks for sharing.

  • Paul Dot  says:

    “We’re predicting that this El Niño could be among the strongest in the historical record dating back to 1950,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction on Thursday 13. August 2015, which fueled enthusiasm? Read more at: http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/El-Ni-o-getting-bigger-and-bigger-6442359.php

    Observing a strong El Niño emerging is simplest observation. But we will see whether predicting it as the strongest since 1950 is currently mere yackely-yak. Ignoring El Niño events in the 1940 and earlier indicates that this kind of competence is not very high.
    Concerning California, Halpert was quick to caution that the event holds no guarantee of above-average rain and snow for California. Time that he understands what happen in 1939/40 and the early 1940s.

  • Dave Lowry  says:

    Interesting subject, indeed! I’m sure that if scientist will look back in the past they will find the reason for some present phenomenons or climatic extremes. I’m sure, for example, that the wars, especially the two World Wars had an important impact over climate change.

  • carlos123  says:

    El Nino was probably strong in summer 1939:
    Schweigger, E.H., 1940.
    “Studies of the Peru Coastal Current with Reference to the Extraordinary Summer of 1939.” Proceedings of the Sixth Pacific Science Congress 3: p. 177-195.

  • carlos123  says:

    Interesting subject, reported in detail at:
    http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/enso/tropstorm.nws

    …SEPTEMBER 1939…
    FOUR STORMS IMPACTED SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THAT MONTH. THE REMNANTS
    OF A HURRICANE TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA
    CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA GENERATING RAINFALL OF UP TO 7
    INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN DESERTS
    OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THE 4TH THROUGH 7TH WITH THE HEAVIEST
    RAIN ON THE 5TH AND 6TH. BLYTHE RECEIVED MORE RAIN THAN WOULD
    NORMALLY FALL IN ONE YEAR AND IMPERIAL RECEIVED MORE RAIN THAN
    WOULD NORMALLY FALL IN TWO YEARS.

    THE REMNANTS OF A SECOND TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
    ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. MOISTURE
    FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE
    NORTH GENERATING RAINFALL OF UP TO 4 INCHES IN THE DESERTS AND
    CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THE 11TH
    AND 12TH.

    A TROPICAL CYLONE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD…JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF
    MEXICO…MOVED INTO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND DISSIPATED. THE
    MOISTURE FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE GENERATED RAINFALL OF UP TO 3
    INCHES IN THE DESERTS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
    SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THE 19TH THROUGH 21ST.

    NEAR THE END OF THE MONTH…A TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING TO THE
    NORTHEAST MOVED ONSHORE AT LONG BEACH AT TROPICAL STORM STORM
    STRENGTH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH. THIS IS THE ONLY KNOWN
    EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE ONSHORE INTO SOUTHERN
    CALIFORNIA AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. RAINFALL OF 5 INCHES IN THE
    LOS ANGELES BASIN AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS
    OCCURRED ON THE 25TH. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN THE DESERTS OCCURRED THE
    DAY BEFORE WITH 6.45 INCHES OF RAIN AT INDIO IN A 6-HOUR PERIOD ON
    THE 24TH.

    ALL THESE STORMS OCCURRED DURING THE EL NINO OF 1938-39.

Leave a reply

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>